tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43819080341948724612024-03-13T08:29:02.506-07:00Climate Change 101Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.comBlogger375125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-57179801347076054912019-12-05T11:43:00.000-08:002019-12-05T11:43:27.887-08:00If climate change action is so important, why spend time teaching climate change science?<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 12pt;">
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The social movements of our
country’s past and present have arisen from people’s everyday, lived
experiences. Child labor and brutal working conditions spurred a movement for
workers’ rights; racial discrimination and horrific violence motivate the
ongoing fight for civil rights; degradation of precious natural resources—and
the effects on human and ecological health—have led to efforts to protect our
air, water, and biodiversity. Now comes climate change. Earth’s climate affects
many aspects of our lives—how we grow food, obtain water, use energy, build
houses—and right now our climate is changing, but it can be hard to put a
finger on just how it is changing in our everyday lives. We’re getting
more extreme storms, but haven’t we always had storms, some worse than others?
Average temperatures are rising, but it’s hard to know what an average winter
feels like when winters vary from year to year.
And it’s hard to remember how temperatures and rainfalls that seem
typical today differ from what seemed typical ten years ago.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Because climate change can be hard
to grasp at the scales of our everyday lives, it can be hard to motivate people
to take action to stop it. But the changes in our climate are real, and climate
science has established that human activities that increase heat-trapping gases
in the atmosphere, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels, are behind it.
Because our lives are so tied to climate, it is imperative that we change the
ways we produce and use energy in order to prevent disastrous changes to our
planet’s climate. Understanding this is foundational, which is why climate
change education is essential to fighting climate change. Dealing with
climate change ultimately depends on an informed public, for only when people
understand that the climate is changing, and why, and how it matters to their
own community, can they be engaged and mobilized for action.<o:p></o:p></div>
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There is good news about climate
change education. Young people worldwide, many of whom learned about climate
change in school, are taking to the streets demanding climate action. In the
U.S., a 2016 national study(1) found that around 75% of public school science
teachers teach about climate change, and two-thirds of science teachers want
professional development in climate science. A 2019 poll of U.S. parents(2) found
that over 80% think that schools should teach about climate change. A large
body of work by educators and researchers over the last twenty years has led to
understanding of strategies for effective teaching about climate change.(3)<o:p></o:p></div>
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But challenges remain. The same
survey that found that climate change is widely taught in the U.S. also found
that around one-third of teachers do not think human activities are the main
cause of recent global warming.(1) Despite the highly interdisciplinary nature of
climate change across the sciences, social sciences, and humanities, 65% of
teachers who don’t teach about climate change say it’s because it’s not related
to the subjects they teach.(2) The same poll reveals other
concerns and needs of teachers. Ninety-one percent of teachers who teach
climate change say they feel comfortable answering students’ questions about
climate change, whereas only 56% of teachers who don’t teach climate change
feel comfortable with this. Perhaps related, 77% of teachers who teach climate
change say they have the resources they need to answer students’ questions
about climate change, whereas of the teachers who don’t teach climate change,
only 32% say they have the resources they need.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Climate change teaching resources
abound—a teacher can easily find lesson plans, datasets, maps and
visualizations, stories, and images online. But sorting through the vast
array of resources and assessing their utility, relevance, and credibility is
not easy. At the Paleontological Research Institution, we strive to help
teachers discover the essential elements of teaching climate change, both
climate science basics and social science issues associated with teaching such
a complex, interdisciplinary topic. We do this through our recent publication, <i>The
Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</i>, as well as teacher professional
development workshops and exhibits and programs at our two education venues in
Ithaca, NY—the Museum of the Earth and the Cayuga Nature Center.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Many Americans don’t question that
education is essential for building a strong economy and maintaining a vital
democracy. We understand the continuing value of our children learning the
things that schools teach today—some of which have been taught in the U.S. for
more than 200 years —such as reading, writing, mathematics, history, foreign
languages, geography, and science. Climate change education, which can connect
to all these disciplines, is just as valuable. Given the need to act now for a
stable, livable climate, climate change education is not only valuable, it is
essential.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">(1)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->Eric Plutzer, A. Lee Hannah,
Joshua Rosenau, Mark S. McCaffrey, Minda Berbeco, Ann H. Reid. (2016) Mixed
Messages: How Climate is Taught in America’s Schools. Oakland, CA: National
Center for Science Education.<span style="color: black;"> </span><span style="color: #1155cc;"><a href="http://ncse.com/files/MixedMessages.pdf">http://ncse.com/files/MixedMessages.pdf</a></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">(2)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]-->NPR/Ipsos polls of 1,007 U.S.
adults conducted March 21-22, 2019 and 505 teachers conducted March 21-29,
2019.<a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/04/22/714262267/most-teachers-dont-teach-climate-change-4-in-5-parents-wish-they-did"><span style="color: black;"> </span><span style="color: #1155cc;">https://www.npr.org/2019/04/22/714262267/most-teachers-dont-teach-climate-change-4-in-5-parents-wish-they-did</span></a> (accessed 11/18/2019).</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">(3)<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Monroe, M. C., Plate, R. R.,
Oxarart, A., Bowers, A., & Chaves, W. A. (2019). Identifying effective
climate change education strategies: a systematic review of the research. </span><i style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Environmental
Education Research</i><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, </span><i style="text-indent: -0.25in;">25</i><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">(6), 791–812.</span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13504622.2017.1360842" style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="color: black;">
</span><span style="color: #1155cc;">https://doi.org/10.1080/13504622.2017.1360842</span></a></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-6842166531657004092017-06-20T17:10:00.000-07:002017-06-21T06:38:13.327-07:00Crowdfunding campaign for sending Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change to teachers all over the country launched today!<div>
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Just in the last two days, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/06/doe-head-says-carbon-dioxide-not-primary-cause-climate-change&source=gmail&ust=1498089840228000&usg=AFQjCNGT1KeUYhLrEKOzF0OWDYomjCVpRw" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/06/doe-head-says-carbon-dioxide-not-primary-cause-climate-change" target="_blank">it was reported that Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry said carbon dioxide is not a primary cause of climate change</a> and <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/airlines/2017/06/19/heat-cancels-phoenix-flights/409634001/&source=gmail&ust=1498089840228000&usg=AFQjCNFDLbcQA6ggvG2ZiIo9ozDvQjAGkw" href="http://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/airlines/2017/06/19/heat-cancels-phoenix-flights/409634001/" target="_blank">flights have been grounded in Phoenix because 120°F is outside of the operating conditions of commercial airliners</a>. <br />
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Whew. Today, we're launching <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://bit.ly/TeachClimateScience&source=gmail&ust=1498089840228000&usg=AFQjCNGoSMQCTSKISJo_8mlqIqRqVGuVsg" href="http://bit.ly/TeachClimateScience" target="_blank">a crowdfunding campaign to help teach climate change</a>. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TWlQ_YC8ZHI/WUm4vw0CHbI/AAAAAAAABaU/F1ZZMiQdcNY7L_zxBVOGOc73C6WDzdAUQCLcBGAs/s1600/climatesummitgreenhouseinabeaker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="960" height="400" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TWlQ_YC8ZHI/WUm4vw0CHbI/AAAAAAAABaU/F1ZZMiQdcNY7L_zxBVOGOc73C6WDzdAUQCLcBGAs/s400/climatesummitgreenhouseinabeaker.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">High school students at the Western New York Climate Action Summit producing the greenhouse effect in a beaker.</td></tr>
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Teaching
climate change poses special challenges - climate change has not been a
part of many teachers' preparation programs, and it is tightly
connected to psychological, social, and cultural issues in ways that
most other science content is not. We believe it is amongst the most
important content to teach. </div>
<br />
Last month, PRI published <i><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG&source=gmail&ust=1498089840228000&usg=AFQjCNHomSXmVt3-DBK7kYO1ib2yOtgYXA" href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</a> </i>edited and largely written by Ingrid Zabel, Don Duggan-Haas, and Robert Ross<i>. </i>The
book provides both a solid overview of the physical science, and discussions of
and approaches to those special challenges of teaching this content. <br />
<br />
The
work was done with support from the National Science Foundation,
allowing us to make the pdf of the 284-page book available free (click
the button "Download full version" <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG&source=gmail&ust=1498089840228000&usg=AFQjCNHomSXmVt3-DBK7kYO1ib2yOtgYXA" href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">here</a>), but we know that many people prefer real print books. </div>
Today,
we've launched a crowdfunding campaign to send print copies of the
book to as many teachers as we can. This campaign is intended to help
get meaningful, scientifically accurate materials into the hands of
teachers. Please help us out. Donate if you can, and please spread the
word about both the book and the crowdfunding campaign!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #ff9900;"><b>Here's the link: <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://bit.ly/TeachClimateScience&source=gmail&ust=1498089840228000&usg=AFQjCNGoSMQCTSKISJo_8mlqIqRqVGuVsg" href="http://bit.ly/TeachClimateScience" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://bit.ly/TeachClimateScie<wbr></wbr>nce</a></b></span></span>Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-36977126148539595782017-06-02T12:22:00.000-07:002017-06-02T13:52:07.060-07:00The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;">The just-published <i><a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</a> </i>couldn't have come at a more appropriate time. With each passing day it seems the need for effective education about climate change and energy is more important than ever. On June 1, President Trump announced his plan to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate. In spite of strong agreement about the fundamental causes and effects of climate change, the Heartland Institute began sending tens of thousands of copies of <i><a href="https://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming" target="_blank">Why Scientists Disagree About Climate Change</a> </i>earlier this year<i>. </i>Ultimately, Heartland's goal is to send this booklet to every science teacher in the country - some 200,000 educators.</span></span><br />
<br />
Most science teachers have had little if any formal training in climate science or how to teach it, and, while there is no serious controversy within the scientific community about climate change and human contributions to it, it is highly controversial from a political standpoint. All of that adds to the challenges of teaching an already complex subject. <i><a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</a> </i>provides strong overviews of both the relevant physical and natural science <i>and</i> the political, psychological, and social issues that make it more challenging to teach than other areas of the science curriculum.<br />
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Like all the other books in the <a href="http://teacherfriendlyguide.org/" target="_blank"><i>Teacher-Friendly Guides </i>series</a> (this is the tenth), <i><a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</a> </i>is written for generally scientifically literate readers, but who may or may not have expertise in the specific disciplines addressed in the book. And, like all the other books in the series, the electronic versions are available <b>free</b>. (Print copies are available of most of the guides at a reasonable cost). The climate change guide will also be of interest to anyone who wants to talk more effectively about climate change, whether it be in the classroom, on Facebook, around the holiday table, at a Rotary Club or in a church basement. </div>
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<i><a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</a></i> is written by Ingrid Zabel, Don Duggan-Haas, and Robert Ross, all of the <a href="http://priweb.org/" target="_blank">Paleontological Research Institution</a> in Ithaca, New York, who also published the book</div>
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The first chapter of the book, "Why teach about climate change?" follows. Naturally embedded within that discussion is why you and I should learn about climate change, so it isn't just for teachers in the formal sense. Like every chapter in the book, this ends with a list of related resources. </div>
<h1>
<span style="font-size: large;">
Chapter 1: Why teach about climate change?</span></h1>
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Weather tells you what clothes to wear and climate tells you
what clothes to own.<sup>1</sup>
In most places, a look out the window can provide good insights into the local
climate. The Earth’s climate is changing, and the changes are primarily the
result of human activities. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Climate
change</b><sup>2</sup> is
a real and serious problem for our environment and for humanity, and we can
take actions that will make the problems less serious. These processes, which
are expected to influence the lives of our students for decades to come, make
climate change an important topic for the classroom.<o:p></o:p></div>
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As a teacher, your starting point in planning to teach about
climate change depends upon a mixture of very local and personal factors.
Questions to ask yourself as you move forward include:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>What do I know about climate?</li>
<li>What do the learners I’m working with know about
climate?</li>
<li>What relevant misconceptions do my students and
I hold?</li>
<li>What district, state, and, national standards do
I need to attend to?</li>
<li>How has climate shaped my community, my region,
my country and the world?</li>
<li>How is climate change likely to affect things in
the coming decades?</li>
<li>How do I navigate the interconnected scientific,
political, economic, and psychological factors connected to this incredibly
complex problem?</li>
<li>What are the most important facts and ideas for
my students to know and understand about climate change?</li>
</ul>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">This book will help you begin to answer these questions.
Some of the questions, however, are richly complex and areas of ongoing
research and affected by ongoing societal change, and thus will involve a
lifetime of learning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>Box 1.1 Climate out my window</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Weather is the face of climate. Look out the nearest
window to look it in the eye. How has the climate shaped what you see? What
do the plant life, the types of buildings, the weather right now, the
vehicles that you see, and the clothes people wear indicate about the
climate?</span></div>
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Climate’s fingerprints likely cover much of the view out
your window. Animals, plants, people, and infrastructure are all adapted to
the climate. Anytime of year, the area around Phoenix, Arizona looks very
different from the area around Buffalo, New York. It doesn’t need to be a
winter day to be able to tell that a place probably gets below freezing in
the winter. Even if it’s raining, you might be able to identify a place that
doesn’t get much rain. What are climate’s telltale signs?</div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SMc7gdlliq0/WTA8iFObqII/AAAAAAAABZk/T-ZK1z2cP9QMF5N78pA3e9iozRvDLmOcQCLcB/s1600/Image-for-Box1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="304" data-original-width="816" height="148" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SMc7gdlliq0/WTA8iFObqII/AAAAAAAABZk/T-ZK1z2cP9QMF5N78pA3e9iozRvDLmOcQCLcB/s400/Image-for-Box1.png" title="" width="400" /></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></div>
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<i><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial";">(A) Deciduous forest (near Buffalo,
NY). (B) A desert setting (near Phoenix, AZ). What visual clues tell you
these places differ in their climates, even though the weather on the days
these photographs were taken may have been fairly similar?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">See Chapter 3: What is Climate? for
a more detailed explanation of weather and climate.</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1. Why teaching about
climate change matters</b></div>
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“We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation, or suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be.” <br />
~John Holdren, 2007. <br />
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John Holdren was
president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science when he
made these remarks. His summation of the problem of climate change concisely
describes the choices we face and does so without the level of pessimism
sometimes included in such pronouncements. When it comes to climate change there
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">is</i> reason for pessimism, but there is
also reason for hope. We have the capacity to act, and many of the actions we
might take have benefits beyond climate. They also have the potential to save
money in both the short and long term and to improve health and other measures
of quality of life. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Scientific study of the size and age of the universe, and of
the geological and fossil record on Earth, have helped us to understand that
humanity is a blip in time on a speck in space<sup>3</sup> (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Figure
1.1</i>). Because everyone we know and love is encapsulated in this blip and
speck, we treasure it deeply and want to preserve its richness, its diversity,
and its life-supporting aspects. We are profoundly lucky to live <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">right here</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">right now</i>. We have a duty to preserve our luck for future
generations. This does not speak to the absence or presence of forces beyond
nature, but it does speak to the awesomeness and wonder of nature.
Understanding the science of Earth systems may deepen our sense of wonder and
of our responsibility for sharing it forward.<br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">We educators are lucky to do what we do.</span><br />
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<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6kBDZABEJ6g/WTBaGU7SdXI/AAAAAAAABZ0/TT_nuVhGgYk3FXGzvZUy41LVYLJT0rqXACLcB/s1600/palebluedot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="781" data-original-width="1041" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6kBDZABEJ6g/WTBaGU7SdXI/AAAAAAAABZ0/TT_nuVhGgYk3FXGzvZUy41LVYLJT0rqXACLcB/s320/palebluedot.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Figure 1.1: View of
Earth from outside the Solar System, at a distance of about 6 billion
kilometers, from the Voyager 1 spacecraft. The image was taken at the request
of astronomer and educator Carl Sagan. <o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2. Science learning, its
application, and politics<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Effective and up-to-date teaching of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">science</i> of climate change is of
paramount importance to good science education, but simply sharing
scientifically accurate content is not the same as good teaching, and is not
sufficient to build meaningful understandings. The science does make clear that
the biggest challenges we will face in the coming decades will be related to
climate, energy, water, and soil, which are inextricably linked with each other.
Society depends upon a fairly stable climate, clean water, energy to power our
way of life, and soil to provide the food we need.<sup>4</sup><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This book addresses the science of climate change, how to
teach it, and climate change’s interdisciplinary nature. And much more than
that. All readers of this book are also well aware that climate change is a
deeply socially and politically contentious issue, thus effective climate
change teaching also requires an understanding of how people decide what is
true and worth acting on. This means we must delve into the fields of sociology
and psychology, to come to a deeper understanding of how our students think,
why they think the way they do, and how to consider our own influences and
biases. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is an important philosophical distinction between
educating about the science of climate change, and educating about the sorts of
actions people can take to mitigate or adapt to climate change. The latter, in
focusing on personal actions, may be perceived as encroaching upon political advocacy.<sup>5</sup> Effective
science education, however, should be relevant to learners’ lives, and climate
change is a defining aspect of our current world. No matter what their
political leaning, students will need to make lifestyle choices, make sense of
the news, and vote; a scientifically literate citizenry will make better, more
informed choices about science issues. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While teaching climate change we must, of course, be careful
not to tread into political advocacy. Effective discourse and learning requires
that students consider the classroom a safe place where their (and their
families’) world views will be respected. Working with other teachers may
permit, however, exploring change from different social and economic
perspectives. For example, students might explore how the implications of
climate change will vary among professions (farmers, insurance brokers,
military strategists, social workers, environmentalists, investors, bankers),
regions of the US, demographic setting (urban versus rural), and so on.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And we must communicate to our students that climate change
is politically but <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">scientifically</i> controversial. More than 97%
of climate scientists agree that climate change is caused by human activity. Many
in the general public believe scientists are divided, and that science teaching
ought to address this (perceived) divide. There is uncertainty and disagreement
about many of the finer details of climate change, but the overarching question
of whether human-induced climate change is occurring is not questioned by a
large percentage of climate scientists. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">3. We all have biases<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This book also gives attention to why many people have a
difficult time accepting the scientific consensus behind climate change
specifically, and, more generally, why perhaps everyone believes some refutable
ideas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are a wide range of reasons
why people believe things that aren’t true due to various kinds of cognitive
biases and logical fallacies. Among the most important with respect to climate
change are the closely related ideas of “identity protective cognition” and “motivated
reasoning.” These are the unintentional thought practices that help us preserve
how we see the world and how we stay in good graces with people who think like
we do – our “tribe.” <span style="font-family: "times new roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are obvious advantages to both fitting in with those
we affiliate with and to maintaining internal consistency among our ways of
thinking (worldview) about our community, the broader world, and
ourselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When new evidence threatens
our worldview, we may find clever ways to discount the data to maintain our
conceptions. When we cannot create explanations for data that seem to conflict
with our views, we may instead compartmentalize our beliefs and thereby hold
onto perceptions of the way the world works that are in conflict with one
another.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ultimately, we are likely to trust information from our own
tribe, including solutions for maintaining our view in conflict with ample evidence.
Determining the difference between reliable and unreliable information is a
struggle that has persisted throughout human history and the amount of
misinformation available related to both climate and energy is substantial.
Problematic arguments (in climate change and elsewhere) stem from both sincere
but incorrect information and explanations, and from intent to misinform;
though we may blame people with different worldviews for the latter, the former
is much more common. Responding to intentional falsehoods – lies – may require
a different kind of response than falsehoods that are believed by the person
making the argument.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
See Chapter 10, Obstacles to Addressing Climate Change, for a more extensive
discussion of cognitive issues.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">4. Systems and scales<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To understand climate change deeply requires a systems
perspective. You, the climate, and the Earth are all systems of systems. Understanding
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">systems</b> -- the connections among
individual components -- is as important as understanding those components in
isolation. Seeing things from a systems perspective requires some understanding
of <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">feedback loops</b>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">tipping points</b>, the history of the
system, and the ability to think across multiple scales (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Figure 1.2</i>). In terms of decision-making, it includes attention to
the notion that advocating against a particular course of action often
unintentionally carries advocacy for a course of action not considered. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ox7ps536N0/WTBa45Y6wmI/AAAAAAAABZ8/L1rc16NeydU86MjkfCA65T3bcPZcFzaZwCLcB/s1600/Climate-TFG-Figure1.2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="865" height="483" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ox7ps536N0/WTBa45Y6wmI/AAAAAAAABZ8/L1rc16NeydU86MjkfCA65T3bcPZcFzaZwCLcB/s640/Climate-TFG-Figure1.2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Figure 1.2: Scales of
weather and climate in time and space. These sorts of diagrams that summarize
processes that occur at very different scales into one plot are sometimes
called “Stommel” diagrams after oceanographer Henry Stommel, who invented them.<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The abstractions related to understanding very large and
very small scales weakens our abilities to make sense of the science and
mathematics of climate change and energy. For example, it is cognitively
extremely challenging to conceive of and compare large numbers such as a
thousand, million, billion, and trillion. Time and space scales smaller and
larger than common individual human experiences make it difficult to understand
intuitively the importance of atmospheric greenhouse gases and the collective
global impact of billions of individuals each influencing the environment in minor
ways over decades. We ask our students and the general public to trust the idea
that molecules they cannot see are real, that small percentages of the atmospheric
composition nonetheless represent billions of trillions of molecules per liter,
and that changes in the amount of these molecules over timescales stretching
thousands to billions of years have influenced the history of Earth’s climate. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Because systems and scales are inherently difficult
concepts, we must find models and activities to help students past these
hurdles. For these reasons and others we will need different approaches to
education than traditional didactic and discipline-focused approaches.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">5. Love and beauty will
persist<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Engaging in the important work of climate and energy
education can be profoundly depressing. Understanding the environmental challenges
we face means confronting challenges that are on a scale perhaps never faced by
humanity. Civilization and agriculture arose and came to thrive in a relatively
stable climate, and it was the general stability of the climate that allowed the
rise of civilizations. The climate is no longer as stable as it was, and is
changing in some ways that will be difficult to adapt to and some that are
difficult to predict. Teaching about it is also, however, an opportunity for
full engagement in a purposeful life. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And though climate is changing, and we will almost certainly
lose some wonderful environments, species, and human settlements, we won’t lose
it all, and to at least some degree new ones will also emerge. If the work gets
you down, consider, for example, spending time in a natural environment. Many
places that we consider of great beauty and value have been impacted by humans,
such as in the widespread forests of the Northeastern US. Regrettably, almost
none of this forest is original “old growth” – that was lost a few generations
ago to humanity’s hunger for fuel, building materials, and other land use. But in
certain respects there is in these areas more nature than there was a century
ago (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Figure 1.3</i>). And some of the
lakes and rivers in the region are much cleaner than they were fifty years ago,
as is the air of many cities. These are just a few examples of many stories in
which increased scientific awareness and understanding, and change that people
worked together to make, have made a positive difference.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-a58T8b8X0Q4/WTBblIXfKjI/AAAAAAAABaE/h64Ull9cG3wD1ZLaxmB8Z5BftEyIhWVdACLcB/s1600/CNC1938-2015.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="862" height="275" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-a58T8b8X0Q4/WTBblIXfKjI/AAAAAAAABaE/h64Ull9cG3wD1ZLaxmB8Z5BftEyIhWVdACLcB/s640/CNC1938-2015.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Figure 1.3: Aerial
photograph taken in 1938 of land near Ithaca, NY and satellite photograph of
the same area taken in recent years. This regrowth of forest of typical of many
parts of the Northeastern US.<o:p></o:p></i><br />
<div class="page" title="Page 17">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "poetsenone"; font-size: 20.000000pt;">Keep reading...</span></h3>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 20.000000pt;">The full text of </span><i><a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</a> </i>is available as a free pdf or print copies maybe purchased here: <a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG">http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG</a>. </div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "poetsenone"; font-size: 20.000000pt;">Resources </span></h3>
<h4>
<span style="font-family: "poetsenone"; font-size: 16.000000pt;">Books</span></h4>
<ul>
<li>Children’s book author Lynne Cherry and photojournalist Gary Braasch offer
an excellent introduction to climate change for middle grade students.
Scientist detectives uncover mysteries of the Earth's climate history through
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">mud cores, ice cores and tree rings and much more. The book is solution-
focused and includes ways that kids can reduce their carbon footprints and
</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">emissions within their communities. Cherry, Lynne & Braasch, Gary. How
</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">We Know What We Know about Our Changing Climate: Scientists and Kids
</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Explore Global Warming. Nevada City, CA: Dawn Publications, 2008.</span></li>
<li>Sagan, C. and A. Druyan, 1994, <i style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of
the Human Future in Space</i><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">, Random
House, NY</span></li>
<li>Award-winning climate scientist Michael Mann and Pulitzer-Prize winning
cartoonist Tom Toles offer rich insights into the science of climate change and
how to communicate it with a sense of humor. Mann, Michael E., and Tom
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Toles. The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our
Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy. Columbia University
Press, 2016.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<h4>
<span style="font-family: "poetsenone"; font-size: 16.000000pt;">Online Resources</span></h4>
<ul>
<li>The Skeptical Science website, <span style="color: #1d3bff; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">https://www.skepticalscience.com/</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">, offers a
</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">wide range of resources to investigate skepticism of climate skepticism.</span></li>
<li>The Debunking Handbook, <span style="color: #1d3bff; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">https://skepticalscience.com/docs/Debunking_
</span><span style="color: #1d3bff; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">Handbook.pdf</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">, is offered through Skeptical Science and carefully lays out
</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">strategies to avoid the back re effect and more generally how to engage with
people who disagree with the scienti c consensus about human contributions
</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">to climate change.</span></li>
<li>Climate Change Evidence and Causes, The Royal Society and The National
Academy of Sciences (2014), provides answers to frequently asked
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">questions about climate change science: </span><span style="color: #1d3bff; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">https://royalsociety.org/~/media/
</span><span style="color: #1d3bff; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">Royal_Society_Content/policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/climate-
change-evidence-causes.pdf</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt;">. </span></li>
</ul>
<b>Footnotes:</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<sup>1 </sup>In practice, climate scientists define climate
based on weather averaged over a span of 30 years or more.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<sup>2</sup> In this volume we generally use the term
“climate change” rather than the approximate synonym “global warming,” since
the climate change the Earth experiences involves more than just temperature
increase. Technical scientific literature tends to use “climate change.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<sup>3 </sup>In 1994 Carl Sagan and Ann Druyan published the
book <i>Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space</i> on
perspectives of Earth given our understanding of space. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<sup>4 </sup>Co-founder of Earth Day, Senator Gaylord Nelson
noted, “The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment.” An
opportunity for cross-curriculum discussion with social studies, history, and
economics could include mapping out how these environmental variables have
influenced US and world history, and how they might influence the future.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<sup><br /></sup>
<sup>5</sup> You can read a more in-depth review of these
issues in Christopher Schlottmann’s article "Climate Change and Education"
in the book <i>Canned Heat: Ethics and Politics of Global Climate Change
(Ethics, Human Rights and Global Political Thought)</i> (eds. Marcello Di Paola
and Gianfranco Pellegrino), August 2014.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Figure Credits:</span></b><br />
<div class="page" title="Page 286">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<span style="color: #060808; font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Box 1.1a: “Wars,” [CC Attribution 2.5 Generic] via Wikimedia Commons</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #060808; font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br />
Box 1.1b: “Fortunate4now,” [CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication] via </span></span><span style="color: #060808; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;">Wikimedia Commons</span><br />
<span style="color: #060808; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #060808; font-size: 11pt;">
1.1: NASA</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #060808; font-size: 11pt;"><br />
</span><span style="color: #060808; font-size: 11pt;">1.2: Robert Ross, adapted from Figure 8 in Peterson, Garry; Allen, Craig </span></span><span style="color: #060808; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;">R.; and Holling, C. S., 1998, Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and
Scale, Ecosystems 1998 1(1): 6–18 (</span><span style="color: #1d3bff; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;">http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/
</span><span style="color: #1d3bff; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;">viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=ncfwrustaff</span><span style="color: #060808; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;">)</span><br />
<span style="color: #060808; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">1.3: Aerial photograph (left) from the Cornell University Library Digital
</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Collections New York Aerial Photographs from 1938. Satellite photograph
</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;">(right) screenshot from Google Maps, retrieved May 2014.</span> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: "poetsenone"; font-size: 20pt;">Keep reading...</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"></span><br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: 20.000000pt;">The full text of </span><i><a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG" target="_blank">The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change</a> </i>is available as a free pdf or print copies maybe purchased here: <a href="http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG">http://bit.ly/ClimateTFG</a>. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-72589403476514128022016-09-22T19:21:00.000-07:002016-12-06T12:26:42.644-08:00<h2 style="height: 0px;">
Teaching Controversial Issues: Resources from GSA Short Courses - 2016 Edition</h2>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
The resources housed on this site are associated with a pair of half-day short courses offered at the 2016 Geological Society of America Meeting in Denver. The courses were held on Saturday, September 24. The courses were designed so that they were complementary and several participants attended both the morning and afternoon sessions. The same instructors taught both courses. The abstracts from the conference program follow the tentative schedule. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is the fourth iteration of our GSA short courses on teaching controversial issues. Resources from prior years can be found by clicking below. </div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>for 2015, Baltimore, MD, <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2015/10/teaching-controversial-issues-resources.html" target="_blank">click here</a>. </li>
<li>for 2014, Vancouver, BC, <a href="http://www.paesta.psu.edu/book/teaching-controversial-issues-workshop" target="_blank">click here</a>. </li>
<li>for 2013, Denver, CO, <a href="http://www.paesta.psu.edu/book/teaching-controversial-issues-workshop/teaching-controversial-issues-workshop-2013" target="_blank">click here</a>. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
Links will be added to this agenda within 24 hours of the courses' completion. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>Instructors for 2016</b>: Don Duggan-Haas, (dad55@cornell.edu), Paleontological Research Institution and its Museum of the Earth; Glenn Dolphin, (gdolphin@ucalgary.ca), University of Calgary; Robert Ross, (rmr16@cornell.edu), Paleontological Research Institute and its Museum of the Earth; Mark Nielsen (nielsenm@hhmi.org), Howard Hughes Medical Institute</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Cosponsors</b>: National Association of Geoscience Teachers; GSA Geoscience Education Division</div>
<div>
<h3>
Short Courses 518 Teaching the Anthropocene Part 1: Controversial Issues 1 & 528 Teaching the Evolution of Life & Earth: Controversial Issues 2</h3>
</div>
<div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">8:00</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Introductions of instructors
and participants - <i>Everybody</i></span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">8:25<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzTAWb4C9TxkOVpuVEV5UWtPV1U" target="_blank">A brief introduction to the Anthropocene</a> - <i>Mark</i></span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">8:35</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><a href="http://bit.ly/GSA-2016-Controversy-1" target="_blank">Using fracking, the history of fuel, and the Anthropocene to reveal rules of thumb for teaching about controversial issues</a> - <i>Don</i></span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">9:10 </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">The geologic timescale</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">What
is the purpose of stratigraphic boundaries? - <i>Rob</i><o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">And
issues of scale as a crosscutting theme for controversial issue - <i>Don</i><o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">10:00</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Break</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">10:10</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzTAWb4C9TxkOVpuVEV5UWtPV1U" target="_blank">Teaching Resources for the Anthropocene</a> - <i>Mark</i> </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">11:00</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "arial";"><a href="http://bit.ly/SameObstacles" target="_blank">The Obstacles Are Largely the Same - Climate Change and Education Reform</a></span></i><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Evidence is
essential but not enough - teaching controversial issues - <i>Don</i></span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">11:15</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Panel Discussion (all
participants) - Discussing Discussion & Debate 1</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">12:00</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Lunch</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">1:00</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: "arial";">Very brief introductions</span></i><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">1:15</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B7YDGxzEYDzJZzJkemNFXzRINFQtYUc2cTJreVVXaFZsODQw" target="_blank">Teaching with controversy: The role of the history and philosophy of science</a> - <i>Glenn</i></span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
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<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">2:00</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Public Understanding of
Evolution and Evolutionary Relationships - <i>Mark and Rob</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">3:00</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid black 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Break</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid black 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid black .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid black .75pt; padding: 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt 5.25pt;" valign="top"><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">3:20</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Know your audience: The role of worldview and cognitive biases</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">3:50</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Panel discussion <i>– (all
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">4:50</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Concluding Remarks/Evaluation </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<b>Some other related resources (also remember to see prior years' resources above):</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b><a href="http://bit.ly/Fire-and-brimstone" target="_blank">Fire and Brimstone and Fort McMurray: Considering the Implications of Apocalyptic Rhetoric in Climate Communication</a>, Don's presentation from session <b>T89</b>, "<a href="https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2016AM/webprogram/Session39758.html" target="_blank">Bringing the Horse to Water and Getting It to Drink: Obstacles and Innovative Ways of Getting the Religious Public to Consider Scientific Evidence.</a>" The session had many presentations of interest. </b></li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Abstract for 518</b>: Humans are having a profound and lasting effect on Earth’s systems. In recognition of this, scientists have proposed that we are now living in a new geologic epoch called the Anthropocene. The Anthropocene is an admission that humans are fundamentally changing the nature of Earth systems—a politically, if not scientifically, controversial proposition. This is one of two connected courses on controversial issues that may be taken separately or together. Questions addressed include: Why are certain issues controversial? How do controversial issues differ from one another? How can we help learners focus on deepening understandings rather than fortifying positions? What does the history of controversy teach us about dealing with these issues? Both courses will investigate the teaching of controversial issues from theoretical perspectives and provide nuts-and-bolts strategies to make teaching such topics more effective and less divisive. Both courses will also present the latest research on the relevant topics and highlight free ready-to-use classroom resources for K–16 teaching about human impacts on planet Earth, all related to the core idea of Earth and human activity found in the Framework for K12 Science Education and The Next Generation Science Standards.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>Abstract for 524</b>: Evolution and a deep history of Earth have long been publically controversial, which provides challenges and opportunities for teaching. This is one of two connected courses on controversial issues that may be taken separately or together. Questions addressed include: Why are certain issues controversial? How do controversial issues differ from one another? How can we help teachers and learners focus on deepening understandings rather than fortifying positions? What does the history of controversy teach us about dealing with these issues? Both courses will investigate the teaching of controversial issues from theoretical perspectives and provide nuts-and-bolts strategies to make teaching such topics more effective and less divisive. Both courses will also present the latest research on the relevant topics and highlight free ready-to-use classroom resources for K–16 teaching about human impact on planet Earth, all related to the core idea of Earth and human activity found in the Framework for K12 Science Education and The Next Generation Science Standards.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<i><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "georgia"; font-size: 24.0pt;">Possible
questions for panel discussions:</span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Are there elements that all controversial
issues share?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc">
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="circle">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Other than the scientific content,
how should the approach to climate and energy differ from the approach to
evolution or the Anthropocene (if they should differ)?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">What would go into a taxonomy of controversial
issues?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">What goals do you have for your work related
to controversial issues? <o:p></o:p></span></li>
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="circle">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">What’s needed to meet those
goals?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">What are the biggest
obstacles to meeting those goals?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">How long will it take to
meet those goals?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Are there strategies that apply broadly to
teaching controversial issues?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="circle">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Are there strategies to
universally avoid?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">How does our work change for different
audiences?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">What does worldview have to do with
controversial issues?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">What is the role of scientific literacy?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">What is the role of cognitive bias?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">How does confidence in a position help and
hurt the messenger?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Boundaries of controversy - <o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Discuss how much time is needed for effective
programming and the role that short programs can play in meeting goals.
<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Controversial issues are emotional issues.
Perhaps the most conspicuous emotion is anger. What other emotions are
important? How? <o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Psychologically, it is more challenging for
most of us to process things that don’t happen than things that do happen.
How does this complexify the teaching of controversial issues? <o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14pt;">Important issues/cross-cutting themes:</span></b><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Worldview; and not everyone within a worldview
sees the science in the same way<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Providing tools and strategies to be the
messenger<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Controversial issues are always dealing with
more than one thing<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Popular vs. scientific controversy<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.0pt;">Reverse tribalism/group think</span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14pt;">Related resources:</span></b></div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 18.6667px;"><a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/NSTA2016/Credibility_SpectrumNSTA2016.docx" target="_blank">Credibility Spectrum (and associated questions)</a>. The Credibility Spectrum was created by Greg Craven and adapted by Eric Pyle. </span></span></li>
</ul>
</div>
Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-67152081744047690962015-10-31T09:42:00.000-07:002015-11-11T19:12:00.172-08:00Teaching Controversial Issues: Resources from GSA Short Courses<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The resources housed on this site are associated with a pair of half-day short courses offered at the 2015 Geological Society of America Meeting in Baltimore. The courses were held on Saturday, October 31. The courses were designed so that they were complementary and several participants attended both the morning and afternoon sessions. The same instructors taught both courses. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
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<span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Instructors: </b>Don Duggan-Haas, (dad55@cornell.edu), Paleontological Research Institution and its Museum of the Earth; Scott Mandia, (mandias@sunysuffolk.edu), Suffolk County Community College; Glenn Dolphin, (gdolphin@ucalgary.ca), University of Calgary; Richard Kissel, (richard.kissel@yale.edu), Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History; Minda Berbeco, (berbeco@ncse.com) National Center for Science Education; Robert Ross, (rmr16@cornell.edu), Paleontological Research Institute and its Museum of the Earth</span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Cosponsors</b>: National Association of Geoscience Teachers; GSA Geoscience Education Division</span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Where</b>: Hilton, Carroll Room</span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">524 Teaching Controversial Issues 1: Climate and Energy</span></span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="line-height: 18px;">When</b><span style="line-height: 18px;">: Sat., 31 Oct., 8 a.m.–noon</span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="line-height: 18px;">Cost</b><span style="line-height: 18px;">: $35. Limit: 35. CEU: 0.4.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b>Abstract</b>: Climate and energy are topics rife with controversy, which provides challenges and opportunities for teaching. This is one of two connected courses on controversial issues that may be taken separately or together. Questions addressed include: Why are certain issues controversial? How do controversial issues differ from one another? How can we help learners focus on deepening understandings rather than fortifying positions? What does the history of controversy teach us about dealing with these issues? Both courses will investigate the teaching of controversial issues from theoretical perspectives and provide nuts-and-bolts strategies to make teaching such topics more effective and less divisive.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 18px;">529 Teaching Controversial Issues 2: Evolution of Life and Earth</span></span></span></h2>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>When</b>: Sat., 31 Oct., 1 - 5pm</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="line-height: 18px;">Cost</b><span style="line-height: 18px;">: $35. Limit: 35. CEU: 0.4.</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Abstract</b>: Evolutionary history and and the age of the Earth are rife with controversy, which provides challenges and opportunities for teaching. This is one of two connected courses on controversial issues that may be taken separately or together. Questions addressed include: Why are certain issues controversial? How do controversial issues differ from one another? How can we help learners focus on deepening understandings rather than fortifying positions? What does the history of controversy teach us about dealing with these issues? Both courses will investigate the teaching of controversial issues from theoretical perspectives and provide nuts-and-bolts strategies to make teaching such topics more effective and less divisive.</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This was the third time the courses have been taught. Resources from 2013 and 2014 are <a href="http://www.paesta.psu.edu/book/teaching-controversial-issues-workshop" target="_blank">here</a>. </span></span></span></div>
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Agenda:</span></span></h4>
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">8:00 Introductions of instructors and participants - Everybody</span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">8:30 Teaching Controversial Issues - an introduction to types of controversy, classroom approaches, and special opportunities in the Earth Sciences. - <i>Don & Rob</i></span></span><br />
<ul><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li>Why should we teach controversial subjects?</li>
<li>Strategies</li>
<li>Rules of Thumb for Teaching Controversial Issues: <a href="http://bit.ly/ThumbGSA2015">http://bit.ly/ThumbGSA2015</a></li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">9:15 “Communicating Climate Change: Sometimes It's Not about the Science” <i>Scott</i></span></span><br />
<ul><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li>Slides: <a href="http://bit.ly/MandiaGSA2015">http://bit.ly/MandiaGSA2015 </a></li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">10:05 Break</span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">10:20 Hydrofracking as a gateway drug for energy literacy - <i>Don</i></span></span><br />
<ul><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li>Prezi: <a href="http://bit.ly/MarcellusGateway">http://bit.ly/MarcellusGateway</a></li>
<li>Credibility Spectrum Activity: <a href="http://bit.ly/Credibility-Spectrum">http://bit.ly/Credibility-Spectrum</a></li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">10:50 “Scientific argumentation vs. debate - what’s the difference?” <i>Minda</i></span></span><br />
<ul><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li>Slides: <a href="http://bit.ly/berbecoGSA2015">http://bit.ly/berbecoGSA2015</a></li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">11:30 Panel Discussion (all participants) - Discussing Discussion & Debate 1</span></span></div>
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12:00 Lunch<br /><br />1:00 Very brief introductions<br /><br />1:15 Teaching with controversy: The role of the history and philosophy of science - <i>Glenn</i></span></span></div>
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<li>Slides: <a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/GSA2015/Dolphin_GSA2015.pdf">virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/GSA2015/Dolphin_GSA2015.pdf</a> </li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br />2:00 Public Understanding of Evolution and Evolutionary Relationships - <i>Richard & Rob</i></span></span></div>
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<li><a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/GSA2015/Ross-GSA2015controversies-workshop-evolution2.ppt" target="_blank">Rob Ross's slides</a></li>
<li><a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/GSA2015/Kissel-GSA15(02).ppt" target="_blank">Richard Kissel's slides </a></li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br />3:00 Break<br /><br />3:20 Panel discussion: Discussing Discussion & Debate 2</span></span><br />
<ul><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li>Know your audience</li>
<li>The role of worldview and cognitive biases</li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">4:50 Concluding Remarks/Evaluation<br /><br /><br /><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "georgia";"><span style="font-size: 32px; line-height: 1.38;"><i>Possible questions for panel discussions:</i></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Are there elements that all controversial issues share?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Other than the scientific content, how should the approach to climate and energy differ from the approach to evolution (if it should differ)?</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 18.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">What would go into a taxonomy of controversial issues?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">What goals do you have for your work related to controversial issues? </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">What’s needed to meet those goals?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">What are the biggest obstacles to meeting those goals?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">How long will it take to meet those goals?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Are there strategies that apply broadly to teaching controversial issues?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Are there strategies to universally avoid?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">How does our work change for different audiences?</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 18.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">What does worldview have to do with controversial issues?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">What is the role of scientific literacy?</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 18.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">What is the role of cognitive bias?</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 18.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">How does confidence in a position help and hurt the messenger?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Boundaries of controversy - </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Discuss how much time is needed for effective programming and the the role that short programs can play in meeting goals. </span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 18.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 18.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Controversial issues are emotional issues. Perhaps the most conspicuous emotion is anger. What other emotions are important? How? </span></div>
</li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline;">Important issues/cross-cutting themes:</span></span></span></div>
<ul style="color: #f26c21; font-weight: 400; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
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<span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Worldview; and not everyone within a worldview sees the science in the same way</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Providing tools and strategies to be the messenger</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Controversial issues are always dealing with more than one thing</span></div>
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<li dir="ltr" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Popular vs. scientific controversy</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reverse tribalism/group think</span></div>
</li>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "georgia"; font-size: 32px; font-style: italic; line-height: 44.1599998474121px;">Links and images we like (in no particular order):</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">On arguing to learn:</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/daniel_h_cohen_for_argument_s_sake" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">http://www.ted.com/talks/daniel_h_cohen_for_argument_s_sake</span></a><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="line-height: 19.2000007629395px;">Workshop: Transforming Geoscience Preparation for K-8 Pre-Service Teachers</span></span><br />
<ul style="font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.2;">
<li><a href="http://serc.carleton.edu/K8GeoTeachers/workshop/index.html" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.2;" target="_blank">http://serc.carleton.edu/<wbr></wbr>K8GeoTeachers/workshop/index.<wbr></wbr>html</a></li>
</ul>
<div style="font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.2;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline;">On Logical Fallacies:</span></span></span></div>
</div>
<ul style="font-weight: 400; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<a href="https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com</span></a></div>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="color: #1155cc; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://bookofbadarguments.com/" style="text-decoration: none;">https://bookofbadarguments.com/</a></span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"></span></div>
</li>
</span></span></ul>
<div style="font-weight: 400;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="line-height: 19.2000007629395px;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div>
<div style="font-weight: 400;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="line-height: 19.2000007629395px;">Why we ignore the obvious:</span></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<ul id="docs-internal-guid-c8a145d1-b3c9-cfa2-54c1-82cdf4dc9c9d" style="font-weight: 400; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.3285714285714285; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<a href="http://www.brainpickings.org/2014/08/27/willful-blindness-margaret-heffernan/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Why We Ignore the Obvious: The Psychology of Willful Blindness</span></a></div>
</li>
<ul style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; list-style-type: circle; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.125; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-right: 40pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<a href="http://www.brainpickings.org/2014/08/27/willful-blindness-margaret-heffernan/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">http://www.brainpickings.org/2014/08/27/willful-blindness-margaret-heffernan/</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></div>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; list-style-type: circle; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.125; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-right: 40pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nice TED Talk within it</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></span></div>
</span></span></ul>
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 15px;">Pat Robertson on how young Earth creationism is wrong:</span></span></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OWIdrSow78">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OWIdrSow78</a></span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><a href="http://ncse.com/voices" target="_blank">NCSE's Voices for Evolution</a></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h1 class="m-detail--hed ng-binding wordcount-5-10" itemprop="headline" phx-word-count="">
<a href="http://www.psmag.com/politics-and-law/why-even-your-best-arguments-never-work-64910" target="_blank">Want to Win a Political Debate? Try Making a Weaker Argument</a></h1>
<h3>
<span class="ng-scope" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Article" ng-if="phxDisplayMode==='full'"><div class="m-detail--summary">
<div class="m-detail--abstract ng-binding" ng-bind="article.teaser">
Gun
control? Abortion? The new social science behind why you're never able
to convince friends or foes to even consider things from your side.</div>
</div>
<div class="m-detail--meta">
<dl>
<dd class="m-detail--author" itemprop="author"><a class="ng-binding" href="http://www.psmag.com/author/eric-horowitz" ng-href="/author/eric-horowitz" phx-track-event="" phx-track-id="Author Name" rel="author">
Eric Horowitz
</a>
</dd>
<dd class="m-detail--publish-date"><time class="ng-binding ng-isolate-scope" datetime="2013-08-23T13:00" itemprop="datePublished" phx-live-date="2013-08-23T17:00:46Z" title="Aug 23, 2013">Aug 23, 2013</time></dd><dd class="m-detail--publish-date"><time class="ng-binding ng-isolate-scope" datetime="2013-08-23T13:00" itemprop="datePublished" phx-live-date="2013-08-23T17:00:46Z" title="Aug 23, 2013"><a href="http://www.psmag.com/politics-and-law/why-even-your-best-arguments-never-work-64910" target="_blank">http://www.psmag.com/politics-and-law/why-even-your-best-arguments-never-work-64910 </a></time></dd></dl>
</div>
</span></h3>
<h3>
Some books:</h3>
<div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<a href="http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=5774&back=authorlast%3DAllmon%26subject%3D%26year%3D%26volume%3D%26isbn%3D%26search%3D1%26catID%3D51" target="_blank">The Science Beneath the Surface: A Very Short Guide to the Marcellus Shale</a></h4>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="article-details" style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 20px 0px; width: 370px;"><tbody>
<tr valign="top"><td class="lt" style="width: 247px;"><h5 style="font-size: 1em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
Authors:</h5>
<div style="padding: 0px 0px 20px;">
Don Duggan-Haas; Robert M. Ross, Warren D. Allmon</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.priweb.org/images/item_MediumImage_5774.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.priweb.org/images/item_MediumImage_5774.jpg" /></a></div>
<div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
</h4>
</div>
<h4 style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
</h4>
<h4 style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<a href="http://www.priweb.org/publications/pubdetails.php?pubID=299&back=authorlast%3DAllmon%26subject%3D%26year%3D%26volume%3D%26isbn%3D%26search%3D1%26catID%3D51" target="_blank">Evolution and Creationism: A Very Short Guide, 2nd ed.</a></h4>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="article-details" style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 20px 0px; width: 370px;"><tbody>
<tr valign="top"><td class="lt" style="width: 247px;"><h5 style="font-size: 1em; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
Author:</h5>
<div style="padding: 0px 0px 20px;">
Warren D. Allmon</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; line-height: 1.125; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.priweb.org/images/item_MediumImage_299.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.priweb.org/images/item_MediumImage_299.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; line-height: 1.125; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases" target="_blank">List of cognitive biases</a></span></span></span><br />
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; line-height: 1.125; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; line-height: 1.125; vertical-align: baseline;">
The politics of teaching evolution, science education standards, and </span><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; font-style: italic; line-height: 1.125; vertical-align: baseline;">Being</span><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; line-height: 1.125; vertical-align: baseline;"> a creationist</span></span></span><br />
<div>
<ul id="docs-internal-guid-c8a145d1-b3dc-8862-85cc-cb4f7368bef6" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><ul style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; list-style-type: circle; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.125; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-right: 40pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 13.3333333333333px; vertical-align: baseline;">David E. Long</span><span style="font-size: 10.4px; vertical-align: super;">*</span></div>
</li>
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; list-style-type: circle; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.125; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-right: 40pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tea.20445/abstract" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tea.20445/abstract</span></a></div>
</li>
</span></span></ul>
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
</span></span></ul>
</div>
<div style="font-weight: 400;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 16.5px;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/beliefs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/beliefs.jpg" /></a><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; line-height: 1.38; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://xkcd.com/154/" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; line-height: 1.38; text-decoration: none;">https://xkcd.com/154/</a></span></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rbr0h2OfIXo/VjIf9kY6heI/AAAAAAAABXA/L_s_zw0rwQI/s1600/EPA-fracking-study-says-whatever-you-want-it-to.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="335" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rbr0h2OfIXo/VjIf9kY6heI/AAAAAAAABXA/L_s_zw0rwQI/s400/EPA-fracking-study-says-whatever-you-want-it-to.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">EPA study on fracking and drinking water says whatever the hell you want it to. Thanks to Ken Klemow for sharing (and to Facebook for putting it together). </span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BNwhVNNg2Qw/VjV0B6Gi1eI/AAAAAAAABXQ/O6NapCR7Myw/s1600/T%2BUnknown%2Bto%2BHumans.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BNwhVNNg2Qw/VjV0B6Gi1eI/AAAAAAAABXQ/O6NapCR7Myw/s640/T%2BUnknown%2Bto%2BHumans.png" width="540" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"></span></span></div>
<ul id="docs-internal-guid-c4684c92-bef7-1c59-5c0a-212d24b177b3" style="margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<li dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline;"><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 8pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">From </span><a href="http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/galileo/dialogue2.html" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-size: 14.6666666666667px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Galileo</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.6666666666667px; vertical-align: baseline;">: One day I was at the home of a very famous doctor in Venice, where many persons came on account of their studies, and others occasionally came out of curiosity to see some anatomical dissection performed by a man who was truly no less learned than he was a careful and expert anatomist. It happened on this day that he was investigating the source and origin of the nerves, about which there exists a notorious controversy between the Galenist and Peripatetic doctors. The anatomist showed that the great trunk of nerves, leaving the brain and passing through the nape, extended on down the spine and then branched out through the whole body, and that only a single strand as fine as a thread arrived at the heart. Turning to a gentleman whom he knew to be a Peripatetic philosopher, and on whose account he had been exhibiting and demonstrating everything with unusual care, he asked this man whether he was at last satisfied and convinced that the nerves originated in the brain and not in the heart. The philosopher, after considering for awhile, answered: "You have made me see this matter so plainly and palpably that if Aristotle's text were not contrary to it, stating clearly that the nerves originate in the heart, I should be forced to admit it to be true." </span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;">
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
</span></span></div>
Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-49235682052907412652015-04-22T10:46:00.001-07:002015-04-22T10:52:21.020-07:00Looking Back on Earth Day - Where my passion for sustainability came from (repost)Today, for Earth Day, we are repeating a post from Father's Day 2010. The post reflects on where my environmental ways comes from and gives a big tip-of-the-hat to my dad, Roger Haas. Today would have been his 90th birthday, and he was certainly the first environmentalist I knew. Another excuse for the reposting is that since I wrote the original, I found a picture of the windmill he built in the backyard.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Why am I (philosophically) green?</h3>
<div>
<img alt="" border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_XQf2uQqNXE0/TB5CAD2em6I/AAAAAAAAA9o/BSFPjIP7MY4/s200/Roger.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5484893964985080738" style="cursor: pointer; height: 142px; width: 200px;" /></div>
<div>
My dad, Roger Haas, who died in May of 2004, was a very quiet man. He was unexpressive to the extreme, virtually never, to my recollection, teaching anything <i>explicitly</i>, yet he taught me a great deal. Most of his teaching was by example.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It gives me the willies when a friend or colleague leaves an engine running while chatting in a driveway or parking lot. That comes directly from Dad. He got the willies too.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
He built things -- there was the solar thermal panel that pre-heated hot water in the form of copper pipe painted black inside a glass covered box leaned up against the souther side of our house (the inside was also painted black). There was a windmill in the backyard made from oil drums cut down the middle. I don't think that ever actually generated any useable power as was the goal, but he did get it to spin in the wind.</div>
<div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Lb_lq93yr-U/VTfeKeDzSiI/AAAAAAAABVs/dBUcWAe9cyQ/s1600/DadsWindmill1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Lb_lq93yr-U/VTfeKeDzSiI/AAAAAAAABVs/dBUcWAe9cyQ/s1600/DadsWindmill1.jpg" height="320" width="230" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dad's windmill, still under construction.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
He turned things off and made sure we did too. Lights left on in empty rooms were one of a few things that made him visibly irritated, and we knew not to run water while we brushed our teeth.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
My siblings and I also knew that little scraps of metal or wood, or interesting pieces of broken things could be made to serve some later purpose.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
These things have been passed on -- one brother has a geothermal heating system. I'm not the only one of my siblings who mows the lawn with a <a href="http://reelmowermodels.com/">reel-type mower</a> (Dad used one too) and has insulated his or her home far more than the average American.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I know Dad did these things largely because he couldn't stand to see things pointlessly wasted. What good does it do leave a light on in an empty room? Why should I use natural gas to heat my water when the sun can do it free? Why would we want to squander our resources? Thanks, Dad, for passing this along to me.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What makes you green?<br />
<br />
<i>Don Duggan-Haas</i></div>
Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-66205679724614899052015-02-26T17:36:00.002-08:002015-02-26T17:46:19.178-08:00It’s freezing out there! – So much for global warming?by Ben Brown-Steiner, Ph.D.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hKrlT8i7YEA/VO_HA4mWFMI/AAAAAAAABTo/_5csxpysvq8/s1600/useastcoast_tmo_2015047_lrg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hKrlT8i7YEA/VO_HA4mWFMI/AAAAAAAABTo/_5csxpysvq8/s1600/useastcoast_tmo_2015047_lrg.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Yikes it’s
cold out there! This winter has brought record cold temperatures to Ithaca [1,2]
with continuing waves of Arctic air [3] making life pretty uncomfortable. All
the Finger Lakes are frozen except for Cayuga and Seneca [4] but with
temperatures expected to barely top freezing for the foreseeable future we may
yet see a frozen Cayuga Lake for the first time since 1978-1979 [2]. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The past
several weeks are undeniably colder than normal, but what’s normal? Is this simply
cold weather or does it imply a cold climate? What can we say about how unusual
this winter is, and does it have anything to do with climate change? To answer
these questions, let’s conduct some rudimentary data exploration. This is the
first step when trying to understand scientific data.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Expanding
the analysis done in a <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/10/whats-climate-like-outside-today.html" target="_blank">previous post,</a> here are the 10-year average maximum,
average, and minimum daily temperatures (˚F) for this December, January, and
February (so far). The purple line marks the climatological long-term average:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MMf8rXtcjIw/VO_HRsomPhI/AAAAAAAABTw/zkr3AJbRBmM/s1600/Ithaca10DJFs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MMf8rXtcjIw/VO_HRsomPhI/AAAAAAAABTw/zkr3AJbRBmM/s1600/Ithaca10DJFs.png" height="241" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Ithaca 10-Year Average
Temperature (˚F) from [5]</span></b><o:p></o:p></i></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Looking at
the long-term climate we can expect winter temperatures to drop from 30˚F in
December to a bottom of around 20˚F in January and then a slight increase to
around 25˚F by the end of February. This 10-year running average matches this
climatological trend with some noise (a ten year average of weather is not yet
climate so we expect this noise). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--StartFragment-->
<!--EndFragment--></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Compared to
these 10-year averages, how does this year’s December-January-February compare?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LMSCVxKw80w/VO_L9ZJQMpI/AAAAAAAABVY/wLit03Cjggg/s1600/IW_2015.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LMSCVxKw80w/VO_L9ZJQMpI/AAAAAAAABVY/wLit03Cjggg/s1600/IW_2015.png" height="241" width="400" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Ithaca 2015 Daily Temperature
(˚F) from [5]</b></span><o:p></o:p></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Yikes! The
average climatological January is 28˚F while this January averaged 17˚F. The
average climatological February is 26˚F with this February averaging only 11˚F.
This previous December, however, was slightly warm: the average December is
28˚F while this December averaged 32˚F. Taken as a whole, however, this is
indeed an unusually cold winter.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Besides the
cold temperatures, are there other aspects of this winter that are unusual? Is
there more or less variability? Do other years show similar anomalies, either
low or high? Here’s an animated comparison of the past 10 Ithaca winters:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nrC4fRzorlU/VO_HvWsP1BI/AAAAAAAABUo/GrTYI6YmYm4/s1600/output_inahGC.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nrC4fRzorlU/VO_HvWsP1BI/AAAAAAAABUo/GrTYI6YmYm4/s1600/output_inahGC.gif" height="241" width="400" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Animation of Daily
Temperatures (˚F) for Ithaca from the Past 10 Years from [5]</b></span><o:p></o:p></i></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Take a look
and see if you can find anything unusual. <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/10/whats-climate-like-outside-today.html" target="_blank">Check out this previous post</a> for good
ways of examining these types of data.<o:p></o:p></div>
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It’s
difficult to look at the current weather and draw conclusions about climate, so
let’s look at these data from different perspectives to see what we can see. My
goal here is to tune your <a href="http://www.inf.fu-berlin.de/lehre/pmo/eng/Sagan-Baloney.pdf" target="_blank">baloney</a> <a href="http://www.brainpickings.org/2014/01/03/baloney-detection-kit-carl-sagan/" target="_blank">detectors</a> when being presented with weather and climate data and to do some data
exploration. Data itself can’t lie, but certain interpretations or
presentations of the underlying data can lie, especially if it is being
presented out of context. Always be skeptical when you’re presented with data!
If portions of data or methods are being hidden, there’s likely a hidden agenda
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For
example, here is the average February temperature for the past four years.
Based solely on this graph, what can you conclude about Ithaca winters?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Average February
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I can hear
people shouting in the background: “Look! No such thing as global warming!” And
sure, based only on the average temperature of the past four Februaries,
completely removed from any larger time or regional context, that might make
sense. But what are we missing when we leave out the context? Let’s zoom out to
the average temperature of the past ten Februaries: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Average February
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Looking at
ten years of data we can see that there isn’t much of a trend. The fact that
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be more of a coincidence than a statement about climate. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Let’s zoom
out a little more. What’s the past ten years worth of December-January-February
averages look like?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Average December-January-February
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The unusual
February anomaly in Ithaca is much less apparent here. There appears to be a
slight decrease in the winter temperature in the past ten years, but it’s not
really a robust trend (or in more technical speak, it doesn’t seem to be
statistically significantly different from no trend at all). Let’s zoom out
some more. What do the previous 100 winters look like in Ithaca?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A_xVWgjpqVA/VO_IdrhxKkI/AAAAAAAABVA/rgoc1aBxv6w/s1600/Ithaca100Winters.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A_xVWgjpqVA/VO_IdrhxKkI/AAAAAAAABVA/rgoc1aBxv6w/s1600/Ithaca100Winters.png" height="250" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p> </o:p><i>Average Winter Temperature (˚F) for Ithaca from 1900 – 2015 from [6]</i></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">(NOTE: The data in in this figure is taken at a different
site than the data from the previous figure, thus the Ithaca winter
temperatures are not an exact match)</span></b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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We
definitely get a different perspective here. The year 2012 was the warmest
winter of the decade, so it’s not an ideal place to start looking at
temperature trends. What we do see is some slow (over multiple decades)
increases and decreases, with a maximum in 1932, after which winter
temperatures generally decreased until 1978, after which they increased again
until around 2000, after which we see no real trend in winter temperatures. These
changes, however are small compared to the “noisiness” of the data.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This
100-year perspective puts the 10-year perspective into a broader climate
context. Among some slow variations in temperature from decade-do-decade we see
a lot of year-to-year variability. By looking only at 10 years of data we’re
missing a lot and we have to be careful about what we conclude from only 10
years of data if we’re talking about climate.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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While we’re
looking at the previous 100 years of Ithaca winters, have you ever heard
someone older than you talking about how the weather or climate was clearly
different when they were young? Did you trust their interpretation and their
memory? Let’s take a look. Here’s the average winter temperature for each
decade during the past 100 years:<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2g0aA0TLOCE/VO_Ii9HVHZI/AAAAAAAABVI/eAjBGUOUsgc/s1600/decadalT.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2g0aA0TLOCE/VO_Ii9HVHZI/AAAAAAAABVI/eAjBGUOUsgc/s1600/decadalT.png" height="240" width="400" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Average Ithaca Winter
Temperature (˚F) for Each Decade from 1900 – 2015 from [6]</span></b><o:p></o:p></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>If they
were born in the 1950’s, 1960’s, or 1970’s, then it was indeed colder when they
were young, although only by 3 – 4 ˚F. If they were born in the first half of
the century, then these current temperatures are close to what they remember
when they were young. Looking at the century as a whole, temperatures have
certainly fluctuated but there is no evidence of a clear, unambiguous trend.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--EndFragment--></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What if
Ithaca is unique? What do the same data look like for the greater Northeastern
region? Here’s the December-January-February temperature trend for the entire
Northeast for the past 100 years:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FUj14lqMxBw/VO_JB8UTSPI/AAAAAAAABVQ/sJGaffjWIf4/s1600/NEUS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FUj14lqMxBw/VO_JB8UTSPI/AAAAAAAABVQ/sJGaffjWIf4/s1600/NEUS.png" height="253" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Average Winter
Temperature Anomaly (˚F) for the Northeastern US Region from 1900 – 2011 from
[7]</b></span><o:p></o:p></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Here we see
that there is a moderate trend showing increasing temperatures. Over the past
100 years, winters in the Northeast have warmed by around 2˚F, although there’s
a lot of variability in this data (i.e. the noise is large compared to the
signal). Ithaca’s trends don’t quite match this regional trend, but Ithaca is
just a single city in this broad region. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">In Conclusion<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>This
broader climate context deepens our understanding of Ithaca’s unusual winter
weather we’re experiencing this year and provides us a long-term perspective.
Looking at the data like this is usually the first step in trying to understand
a scientific phenomenon since it helps to understand the larger picture.
Jumping right into a smaller portion of the data and drawing conclusions (e.g.
the previous four Februaries) leads to distortions and misunderstanding, and we
all need to be wary of data that is presented without this greater context.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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[1] <a href="http://www.ithacajournal.com/story/news/local/2015/02/24/record-cold-february/23931469/">http://www.ithacajournal.com/story/news/local/2015/02/24/record-cold-february/23931469/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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[2] <a href="http://ithacavoice.com/2015/02/ithaca-pace-2nd-coldest-february-record/">http://ithacavoice.com/2015/02/ithaca-pace-2nd-coldest-february-record/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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[3] <a href="http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/another-cold-arctic-blast-great-plains-midwest-northeast">http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/another-cold-arctic-blast-great-plains-midwest-northeast</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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[4] <span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Cornell%20University" datetime="2015-02-26T20:09"><a href="http://ithacafingerlakes.com/2015/02/12/finger-lakes-ice-from-above/">http://ithacafingerlakes.com/2015/02/12/finger-lakes-ice-from-above/</a></ins></span>,
image from <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/content/snow-covered-northeastern-united-states/#.VO_DebPF_wH">http://www.nasa.gov/content/snow-covered-northeastern-united-states/#.VO_DebPF_wH</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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[5] <a href="http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/climate/ithaca/">http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/climate/ithaca/</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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[6] <span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_IthacaCornellUniv_Ithaca_NY_December.html">http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_IthacaCornellUniv_Ithaca_NY_December.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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[7] <a href="http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/technical_reports/NOAA_NESDIS_Tech_Report_142-1-Climate_of_the_Northeast_U.S.pdf">http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/technical_reports/NOAA_NESDIS_Tech_Report_142-1-Climate_of_the_Northeast_U.S.pdf</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-2831100447595750422015-02-24T12:02:00.001-08:002015-02-25T06:15:27.516-08:00The "Pale Blue Dot Image" turned 25<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">by Don Duggan-Haas</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1">The Pale Blue Dot image just turned 25. Here's <a href="http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4484"><span class="s2">a blurb from JPL on the anniversary</span></a>, and here's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pfwY2TNehw&feature=youtu.be"><span class="s2">a lovely video</span></a> with Carl Sagan narrating by reading from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Pale-Blue-Dot-Vision-Future/dp/0345376595/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1424807646&sr=1-1&keywords=the+pale+blue+dot" target="_blank">his book of that title</a>. The image is at the bottom of the post. </span></div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/2pfwY2TNehw/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/2pfwY2TNehw?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1">And a quote from the book:</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="s1">That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. ... There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.</span></blockquote>
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<span class="s1">Carl Sagan helped me to understand that humanity is a blip in time on a speck in space. Someone who understands that has a fundamentally different worldview from the worldviews held by most other folks, I'm pretty sure. Whether that difference is good or bad, I can’t say. But it is well grounded in robust scientific findings.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1">Because everyone I know and love is encapsulated in this blip of time and this speck in space, I treasure it deeply and want to preserve its richness, its diversity, and its life-supporting aspects. We are profoundly lucky to live right here and right now. We have a duty to preserve our luck for future generations, and right now, we are poised to fail at that task. This does not speak to the absence or presence of forces beyond nature, but it does speak to the awesomeness and wonder of nature. Understanding the science of the Earth system has deepened my sense of wonder and my sense of responsibility. This sense of wonder and responsibility begets a responsibility for sharing it.</span><span class="s3"> </span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<br />
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<span class="s1">As a geoscience educator, I'm lucky to do what I do. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpegMod/PIA00453_modest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpegMod/PIA00453_modest.jpg" height="322" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br />
<dt style="background-color: white; color: #4b5c68; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: medium; text-align: -webkit-left;"><b><a href="http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00453" target="_blank">Original Caption Released with Image:</a></b></dt>
<dd style="background-color: white; color: #4b5c68; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: medium; text-align: -webkit-left;"><div style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 1em; padding: 0px;">
These six narrow-angle color images were made from the first ever 'portrait' of the solar system taken by Voyager 1, which was more than 4 billion miles from Earth and about 32 degrees above the ecliptic. The spacecraft acquired a total of 60 frames for a mosaic of the solar system which shows six of the planets. Mercury is too close to the sun to be seen. Mars was not detectable by the Voyager cameras due to scattered sunlight in the optics, and Pluto was not included in the mosaic because of its small size and distance from the sun. These blown-up images, left to right and top to bottom are Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn, Uranus, Neptune. The background features in the images are artifacts resulting from the magnification. The images were taken through three color filters -- violet, blue and green -- and recombined to produce the color images. Jupiter and Saturn were resolved by the camera but Uranus and Neptune appear larger than they really are because of image smear due to spacecraft motion during the long (15 second) exposure times. Earth appears to be in a band of light because it coincidentally lies right in the center of the scattered light rays resulting from taking the image so close to the sun. Earth was a crescent only 0.12 pixels in size. Venus was 0.11 pixel in diameter. The planetary images were taken with the narrow-angle camera (1500 mm focal length).</div>
</dd>
<dt><b>Image Credit:</b></dt>
<dd>NASA/JPL</dd></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-71212184328771061252015-01-30T12:26:00.001-08:002015-01-30T12:41:54.283-08:00How can science help us answer the question “what should we do about climate change?” by Ben Brown-Steiner<br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />“...there are <u>known-knowns</u>; there are things we know we know. We also know there are <u>known-unknowns</u>; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also <u>unknown-unknowns</u>—the ones we don't know we don't know.” - Donald Rumsfeld</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">When we approach a scientific topic, be it climate science, cancer research, crop yields, or nuclear physics, we typically expect two distinct things. First, we expect the scientists in the field to have answers to our questions. What’s the weather going to be tomorrow? How do I stop my tomato plants from dying? Can we use nuclear energy to power our city? Second, we expect individual scientists to expand the general body of scientific knowledge by attempting to understand the unknown. We fund research hoping to shine a light in the many dark corners of the natural world that are not yet understood. Can we create better weather forecasts? Can we improve on current methods of tomato gardening/farming? Can we discover a safer way to use nuclear energy?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">These two expectations, to know and to find, are examples of <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">known-knowns </b>and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">known-unknowns</b>. We expect scientists to have a body of knowledge (known-knowns) as well as be capable of pushing the boundaries to expand this body of knowledge (known-unknowns). We look to science textbooks for answers, and fund research grants with clear expectations of improving our world. The <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">unknown-unknowns</b> are pesky and troublesome. Since we don’t know what they are, it’s difficult to make a plan to discover them. Often, we rely on luck to uncover these unknown-unknowns (I’m going to talk about unknown-unknowns in a future post).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">However, science (in general) and scientists (in particular) are often approached with another question that the tools and methods of science are not designed to address: what should we do? What should we do to address climate change? What should we do to reverse the trend in cancer rates? What should we do about nuclear energy, tar sands, wind energy, habitat loss, ocean acidification, and infant mortality?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I want to point out here that I am talking about pure science. Applied science and engineering have real-world, practical components with budget, political, or regulatory limitations and expectations that direct "what should be done." But even a pure scientist, who is solely concerned with scientific discovery, does not always wear a pure science hat. Every scientist is also a citizen, with a personal belief or value system that is almost always partially independent of their scientific training.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">This “should” question is <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">the</i> question of our time, and science, on its own, is <u>utterly unable</u> to address it. The following conceptual diagram, which traces back to Plato (I’ve changed Plato’s ‘values’ to beliefs) helps us understand why:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Lt42twk8zO0/VMvoRuIoTvI/AAAAAAAABS0/eQbdPyoHOkc/s1600/truthsbeliefs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Lt42twk8zO0/VMvoRuIoTvI/AAAAAAAABS0/eQbdPyoHOkc/s1600/truthsbeliefs.png" height="192" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">This figure makes a clear distinction between what is true and what we believe. By and large, most people strive to merge the two spheres, but often fail. Beliefs are not always true. For instance, nearly 90% of Americans who drive a car <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">believe</i> that they are better than average drivers [1]. By definition, this cannot be true; the average American is a better driver than 50% of Americans and a worse driver than 50% of Americans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">There may also be truths that we don’t believe. For instance, many of us are afraid of sharks and believe them to be really dangerous. However, more people are killed by horses, cows, bees, and deer than sharks in a given year [2]. This true fact, however, is very unlikely to alter many people's beliefs about the dangerous nature of sharks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Where does science fit into this? Science, which is concerned exclusively with the observable world, is able to speak only to the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">truth</i> circle. In addition, science is certain of some things and uncertain about others. We are <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">certain </i>(in the center of the truth circle)<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>that CO2 is made up of an atom of carbon and two atoms of oxygen. We are <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">highly certain </i>(towards the center of the truth circle) that increased concentrations of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere increase the global temperature. We are <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">uncertain</i> (towards the boundary of the truth circle) exactly how increased CO2 concentrations will influence the atmosphere/ocean/ice/land/biological system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">And, according to Plato and the above diagram, knowledge, wisdom, and decisions for action exist at the overlap between truth and belief. For instance, the question “how much CO2 should we emit?” depends both on the truth (via science) and our beliefs about how much is acceptable (via a multitude of sources). Or the question “should I eat meat?” depends on the current scientific understanding of the state of meat production in the modern world <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and</i> each person’s individual belief in what is right [3].<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">This is an important distinction because people frequently advocate a course of action and cite science, as if that is all that was needed to make a decision. What people often leave out when advocating a course of action is a statement about their particular belief system. There are numerous examples: climate change, renewable energy, hydrofracking, meat production, vaccines, abortion, and so on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Much of the bitter debate, anger, and confusion related to these issues comes from this basic misunderstanding. When someone says, “we should do [this action] because of [this scientific conclusion]!”, what they are really saying is “we should do [this action] because of [this scientific conclusion] and because I believe in [this value system]!” A scientific conclusion <u>cannot</u> on its own address questions of “should.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Future attractions:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ve written a lot about issues surrounding actual climate science, so for the following posts I will review many of the “known-knowns” of climate science. After that I will address some of the known-unknowns, and then I’ll discuss some of the potential unknown-unknowns.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority#Driving_ability</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[2]: <a href="http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/events/department-news/1195/forget-sharks-cows-are-more-likely-to-kill-you/">http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/events/department-news/1195/forget-sharks-cows-are-more-likely-to-kill-you/</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[3]: Personally, I love meat, but I strive to make sure it is locally sourced and humanely treated. That’s not a scientific evaluation but a belief/value that I hold.</span></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-8231207923533693412015-01-09T13:11:00.000-08:002015-01-09T13:11:19.099-08:00Finding a Signal in the Noise<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">by Ben Brown-Steiner</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">(Note: This post follows up on ideas presented in my previous post, and I highly recommend you <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/10/whats-climate-like-outside-today.html" target="_blank">read that post</a> before this one).</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Take a look at the following two graphs.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Screen Shot 2014-11-12 at 5.38.42 PM.png" height="122" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/LR1x8s0DEzY4uUVDluMOB6sTDjShF6TKSv9k33FwuTnkrtaBPyaLHvWYiv-_2ZaNmzQTZUAmJtXLGikyLo3M5IJHGIfhw2oGIR1T54wu69zXdAKvPlFxcngujDQLdNVfGA" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="200" /> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Screen Shot 2014-11-12 at 5.39.00 PM.png" height="120" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/GN7IZiuyMnEFQRsUo2cxj01EnHed81IP4zv8yRSNqVTyl7Kgvx7LSv9gJ9ATU0ePYkx1extBFQERh3y3Lczqc1aqez7zhLpQM0CnQaAULABBDh7MscSVKMIGiSb9NTM1bA" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="200" /></span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">They both cover the same years (1986 - 2007), and I’ve removed the vertical axis labels because that would (for the moment) ruin all the fun.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Before I give hints to what these two plots represent, can you venture any guesses? Is there a signal in either of these plots or is it just noise? </span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">For a first pass I’d say they both are generally increasing, but not consistently. They both wiggle, although the one on the right wiggles more dramatically (higher variability). The left one seems to plateau and then drop off after 2004, while the right shows a large jump around 1998 and seems to plateau after that.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Now for a hint: both of these plots represent something which we suspect has changed or is changing over time, and we have some expectation that we’d be able to detect these changes by studying these graphs. Can you guess where these changes happened (either one year or a range of years)?</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">A second hint: in one of these graphs, a distinct change happened in 1998. In the other graph the changes have been gradual over time.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Alright. The left graph is the number of home runs hit by Barry Bonds each year throughout his career. It’s generally accepted that Bonds started taking steroids in 1998. The right graph is the average annual temperature anomaly (meaning the mean temperature from 1951 - 1980 has been removed) over the US, and it’s generally believed that the climate has been warming over these years.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">And, almost maliciously, the graph of Bond’s home runs doesn’t show a clear jump after 1998 (when he started taking steroids) while the temperature plot does. While we could speculate that the US temperature spikes as a result of Bond’s steroid use, it’s better to look at the 1998 jump in temperatures as a result of the 1997/1998 El Niño event (which I’ll write about in a future post) and the plateau afterwards as some form of variability (<a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/10/whats-climate-like-outside-today.html" target="_blank">see my previous post</a>).</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">What can we say about the influence of steroids on Barry Bond’s home runs? We can confidently look at year-to-year changes and try to explain what we see because we would expect an athlete to improve every year, reach a peak, and then either decline or retire. We expect any changes to his body (i.e. steroids) to be reflected in the amount of home runs he makes in a year. We see that before he started taking steroids, his home run total was in a slight decline. We also see that after he started taking steroids, his home runs spiked. However, after 2001 his home runs dropped again. Perhaps this is because he stopped taking steroids, or maybe he was just getting old (I’m not really a baseball fan so don’t know much about Bond’s career).</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[As a side note: steroids actually make an excellent climate change analogy. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW3b8jSX7ec" target="_blank">See this video from AtmosNews</a>.] </span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">What can we say about the temperature records and their fluctuations? Since this time period is over 20 years, and we aren’t really talking about climate until we’re looking at at least 20 years (see my previous post), we can’t really say much. The year-to-year fluctuations are so large that it’s hard to draw any strong conclusions. To get a better idea of the climate, let’s look at the full US temperature record (1880 - 2011):</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Screen Shot 2014-11-12 at 5.58.42 PM.png" height="192" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/_R8n5nGmyXJrINtYBoTSrESEKZ88L0UjzNqbPyiYcd4KbUstEKKKTNR5JILvvMP0cGS8L_AJsZ--6cO0pRUtMR2vPERCZNJ4z7ms3GVtWBcFqqvmku0ZGmNaeTnLHym7lw" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">We can see more clearly now an increasing trend starting in the 1960s, but there’s still a lot of wiggles (or noise). One common method for reducing the noise level (also called smoothing) is to take a moving average. In the following figure, every yearly datapoint is the moving five-year average (we average the two previous years, the current year, and the two future years together) from the same data as the previous graph:</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="Screen Shot 2014-11-12 at 5.59.57 PM.png" height="184" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/vHcCfYu7eg9UMU2lOn1ZUKghPLNv1SSgRqaGm6GvtsmOTHmGxeHMT5gmxhjx0xNtVPxc11W_qXVAfC72Oc__aBkR3AqtHrtuqOcLTJH2jIomjp528NljHK-ViXQSHvph2Q" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Without the annual noise it’s easier to see a trend, especially after 1960. This particular dataset stops at 2009, and I want to note that the following three years were all warmer than 2009 [1]. This method has allowed us to reduce the “noise” which enables us to detect the “signal” better. We can also see the “warming hiatus” during the last 10 years, but once again, 10 years isn’t long enough to really be climate yet. It’s still weather. I’ll write a post about the warming hiatus in the near future.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">There’s so much more we can explore with climate signals and weather noise (and I will address more of these in future posts). But for now, let’s leave it here.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The data for the plots was obtained from these sites:</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?redir" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?redir</span></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">[1]: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/indicator_downloads/temperature-download1-2014.png</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-77567673040419217362014-12-23T09:33:00.001-08:002014-12-23T09:33:23.880-08:00Calling Uncle Fred a Jerk Won't Help: The Having of Hard Holiday Conversations, 2014 Edition<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For most of the last several years, we've shared ideas about how to talk about climate change at holiday gatherings. Welcome to the 2014 edition! </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">With PRI's educational work in evolution, climate change, and, more recently, hydraulic fracturing, we think about how to address controversial issues all the time. I share things about all of this stuff on my Facebook wall and I'm connected to a number of groups where we hash this stuff out. Today's post comes from a Facebook exchange that grew out of a friend's concerns about Thanksgiving with a brother-in-law who doesn't accept that climate change is real and human-caused. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While the focus of what follows is on climate change, it highlights general ideas related to talking about many controversial issues. I'll spill the beans early - once you insult someone's motives or intelligence in an argument, you've likely lost your opportunity to help them understand your point of view. Treating those who disagree with you as the enemy may have its place, but its almost certainly not the holiday dinner table. And, we should consider how much of a place it has at all. The post is largely about how to make an honest change in the direction of the discussion that might yield more productive results. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While I'm updating this text that was mostly written in November, I'm also thinking about the horrible things that have been going on related to police both giving and receiving brutality. So much of that national discussion has simply been ugly and unhelpful. I invite you to think about how the thoughts I share below about climate change connect to discussing other controversial issues. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #10131a;">Cutting to the chase</span></h2>
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<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Most of the rest of the post is my response to a long back-and-forth exchange about how to talk to a relative with a vastly different worldview from the person who raised the question. Many of the posts by others in the conversation detailed the science of climate change and pointed to resources to back up evidentiary claims, that is, to ground the argument in the science. I was a late comer to the discussion, and read through the exchange before piping in. I've lightly edited my contribution to fix a typo or two, and to make it more clear, but it's essentially what I wrote in response to a long series of posts about what evidence to use. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I read through this thread this morning, and
have been mulling if for the day. Obviously, the science is essential - but
it's also pretty obvious that just dishing science isn't sufficient. My
educated guess is that your brother-in-law's worldview makes it next to impossible for
him to accept the science.<br /> </span></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></o:p></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">That's likely grounded in concerns about what
the commonly proposed solutions will do to his way of life (and the American
way of life).<br /> </span></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></o:p></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's obviously not an indication that he's
stupid - as you note, he's not. Getting heated about it likely will make
matters worse - advocates tend to deepen people's convictions more than they
deepen people's understandings, and many advocates manage to deepen convictions
at both poles of polarizing issues. That's partly because they often insult
those at the pole that's opposite from theirs, and that's a terrible strategy.
I don't get the vibe from reading Fred's (not his real name) comments that he's likely to do that,
but it's a common problem – a really common problem.<br /> </span></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></o:p></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Think about big ideas you've changed your mind
about and what led to the change of heart. It likely wasn't sped along by
anyone who insulted you, and it likely took a long time. It may have involved
someone with kind reassurances about accepting whatever idea wouldn't ruin your
life. That could be explicit, or it could be by example. I think gay people
coming out of the closet and basically just being as nice as anyone else is
fundamental to the change in attitude about gay marriage.</span></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></o:p></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For climate change, it makes more sense to talk
about other issues that have the same root cause - wasting energy, particularly
from fossil fuels. Almost no one will admit to liking waste as part of his or her
value system. And, the waste from fossil fuels is often truly filthy and
despoils the environment in a wide range of ways. If he's amused by the rolling
coal movement (Google "<a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Rolling+Coal&oq=Rolling+Coal&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.959j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=119&ie=UTF-8" target="_blank">Rolling Coal</a>" if you don't know what it is),
you can point out that it's not only filthy, it's also unpatriotic - wasting
oil helps keep its price high which helps support groups like ISIS, even if the
petroleum wasted comes from the US. With oil as an international commodity,
wasting it anywhere helps support those nasty people.<br /> </span></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></o:p></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's also allowing freeloaders to use our shared
atmosphere as dumpsite for their waste. Nobody likes freeloaders either.<br /> </span></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></o:p></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">You might well be able to get him to agree to
all of that. It's not global warming, but it's got the same set of fixes.<br /> </span></span><span style="color: #10131a;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></o:p></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #10131a;">Another thing about changing your mind on big
issues - it usually takes a long time, and a gradual build up of evidence that
fits into a bigger picture. You likely won't win him over this Christmas, but
maybe if you keep at it in a kindly fashion, it'll happen down the line.</span></span></blockquote>
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<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There's a lot more to say on this issue, but keeping it civil and reflecting on important ideas where you've had a change of heart could go a long way toward improving the discussion and maybe making some progress. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #10131a;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This year's edition has a somewhat different spin than earlier years. </span></span><span style="color: #10131a; font-family: inherit;">If you'd like to look back to previous years, here are the links:</span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="color: #10131a; font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-having-of-holiday-climate-change.html" target="_blank">The Having of Holiday Climate Change Chats, 2012 Edition</a>, by Tyler K. Perry</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2011/12/climate-change-talking-points-for.html" target="_blank">Climate Change Talking Points for Holiday Gatherings: 'Tis the season for uncomfortable conversations! 2011 Edition</a>, by Don Duggan-Haas</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2010/12/tree-in-living-room-as-opportunity-to.html" target="_blank">A tree in the living room as an opportunity to teach about carbon, 2010 Edition</a>, by Don Duggan-Haas</span></li>
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We've been overwhelmed by spam in the comments on the blog, so they've been shut off. Please comment through social media. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Happy Holidays!</div>
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Don Duggan-Haas</div>
Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-55623316979287439832014-10-24T09:23:00.000-07:002014-10-24T09:23:17.190-07:00What's the climate like outside today?By Ben Brown-Steiner<br />
<br />
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Winter is coming. We all know this.
But let’s say that I didn’t know this. What could you do to convince me that
winter is coming? If we went for a walk outside what things could you use as evidence?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
You could use the colors of the
leaves and a description of the seasonal cycle of trees. You could point out
the frantic behavior of squirrels and an explanation of what they are burying
and why. Both of those things are individual pieces of evidence and a logical
explanation of how they fit into a larger pattern, and as such they are pretty
convincing.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
If it was a cold day you could talk
about the decreasing temperatures and talk about how you wished it was still
August. That would be pretty convincing. But what if it was an unusually warm
day? You would be forced to tell me to forget about the day’s weather and focus
on the longer trend. You would tell me to ignore what appears to be
counter evidence for your claim. If I were skeptical that winter was actually
coming, I may not believe you.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Looking for evidence in an individual
day for a change in season, especially if you are talking about temperatures,
is really tricky because all we can experience when we step outside is the
weather. If I wanted to know what the weather was today you could respond like
Calvin’s mother does to his question:</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VhbZDIFdo4k/VEp76XxFr9I/AAAAAAAABRc/Dv1IEiDbTCQ/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-24%2Bat%2B12.18.31%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VhbZDIFdo4k/VEp76XxFr9I/AAAAAAAABRc/Dv1IEiDbTCQ/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-24%2Bat%2B12.18.31%2BPM.png" height="200" width="155" /></a></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Weather is the day-to-day,
hour-to-hour, minute-to-minute fluctuation of the atmosphere we all live in,
which is chaotic and highly variable. In order to perceive a seasonal change we
need to pay attention to the moving average of daily temperatures over the span
of weeks or months. This is because ultimately a change in seasons is not
weather. It’s a change in the long-term average temperatures that follows an
annual cycle dictated by the tilt of our planet. This cycle is so consistent
that during certain times of the year we all expect to see evidence of the
change in seasons and therefore we perceive changes in temperatures as evidence
of a change in season. During the autumn, it is very easy to experience a cold
day and feel that winter is near, or experience a warm day and lament the
passing of the summer. But our day-to-day experiences are moments in the
constantly fluctuating and highly variable weather. On their own they are not
evidence of a change in seasons.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
To understand the seasonal cycle, or
to understand any long-term average, we have to rely on observations, data,
statistics, and pattern recognition. This is especially true if we’re trying to
understand the climate. This is because, even more so than the seasons, climate
is a long-term average (years to decades) of the weather and averaging is a
statistical tool that is abstracted from the weather that we experience every
day. For instance, if the high today is 77°F and the low tonight is 35°F, the
24-hour average temperature is around 56°F, which is a poor representation of
the hourly temperatures that we actually feel on that day. Even an average of
temperatures over a single day is abstracted from real-world experience and is
about as useful as that broken clock that is right twice a day.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
To get an intuitive feeling for how
abstract climate really is, let’s look at Decembers in Ithaca over the past ten
years. The following figure is the daily maximum temperature (red), minimum
temperature (blue) and average temperature (green) for December 2013.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gtInNKOcu5A/VEp8Cb5sjjI/AAAAAAAABR0/ILIs-IcYL3o/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B3.01.30%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gtInNKOcu5A/VEp8Cb5sjjI/AAAAAAAABR0/ILIs-IcYL3o/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B3.01.30%2BPM.png" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="Normal1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
December of 2013 felt like a weird
one. It dropped below 0°F on December 17<sup>th</sup> only to reach above 65°F
on the 23<sup>rd</sup>. What can we predict about this December based on last
December? The unfortunate answer is: not much. It would be foolish to predict
that this December would match any of the specific highs and lows from last
December. Weather is highly variable. What if we look at the average climate
for Ithaca in December? The following figure is the same as the one above but
with the climate average for each day in a purple line.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CmWuQMo0bWk/VEp8CtNfgoI/AAAAAAAABR4/osKiOAYlnpc/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B3.05.08%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CmWuQMo0bWk/VEp8CtNfgoI/AAAAAAAABR4/osKiOAYlnpc/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B3.05.08%2BPM.png" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="Normal1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The December climatology shows that,
on average, the mean temperature drops from 35°F on December 1<sup>st</sup> to
25°F by December 31<sup>st</sup>. Interestingly, last December looks nothing
like the climatology. Why is that? How can we say that we would expect any
given December to be like the December climatology when last December was
nowhere near the climatology? Was last December an unusual December? We can’t
answer these questions based on any single December, so let’s look at the past
ten Decembers plotted in the following figure. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gwcB643WlDw/VEp8r8efTgI/AAAAAAAABSc/uMIw5Kq1OmE/s1600/ithacadecembers.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gwcB643WlDw/VEp8r8efTgI/AAAAAAAABSc/uMIw5Kq1OmE/s1600/ithacadecembers.gif" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="Normal1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Trying to pick a ‘normal’ December is
difficult. They generally show decreasing temperatures, although not always.
Temperatures actually increased throughout December in 2007. None of them
actually match the December climatology. They all show temperature
fluctuations, but the fluctuations don’t really show much of a predictable
pattern. If we were to make a statement about the weather for this coming
December, all we could really do would be to state the climate average
(“Decreasing daily average temperatures from 35°F to 25°F…”) plus make a
statement about the average temperature fluctuations and their frequency
(“...with deviations from that trend around 10°F every 5 – 10 days”). That’s a
climate forecast. It’s not a weather forecast.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
We’re back to that fundamental
difference between weather and climate. The climate average is so abstracted
from our actual experience that it’s impossible to feel the climate in any
meaningful way. All we feel is weather. It’s only with statistics and averaging
that we can experience climate. To get a weather forecast for December, we’ll
have to wait until late November when actual weather models can start to make
meaningful weather forecasts.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The following four figures should
help us get a more intuitive understanding of these differences. They are the
averages of the last 2, 5, 10, and 20 years of daily December temperatures. At
only two years, you can still see the influence of the warm days from 2013.
Early December in 2012 was also warm, and a 2-year average still is subject to
the random patterns of weather. We’re not yet looking at climate.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IcflEpE8d80/VEp8Bo7W0hI/AAAAAAAABRo/B0sjnrAKrbY/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.50%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IcflEpE8d80/VEp8Bo7W0hI/AAAAAAAABRo/B0sjnrAKrbY/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.50%2BPM.png" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="Normal1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
At five years, much of the
year-to-year variability is smoothed out.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0z5PaJW1h38/VEp8BngcTpI/AAAAAAAABRk/HQ-O-6a4gso/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.51%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0z5PaJW1h38/VEp8BngcTpI/AAAAAAAABRk/HQ-O-6a4gso/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.51%2BPM.png" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="Normal1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
At 10 years, the temperature plots
are even smoother. It’s looking more like the climatology now.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IwU5Lr6CjpE/VEp8Bq280_I/AAAAAAAABSQ/5hVdDDdiru0/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.52%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IwU5Lr6CjpE/VEp8Bq280_I/AAAAAAAABSQ/5hVdDDdiru0/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.52%2BPM.png" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="Normal1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
At 20 years, it looks even better.
The green line (average daily temperature) lines up pretty closely with the
long-term climatology.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iEZjxp2Y_lw/VEp8CGPjSrI/AAAAAAAABRs/dIXnMX2eb20/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.54%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iEZjxp2Y_lw/VEp8CGPjSrI/AAAAAAAABRs/dIXnMX2eb20/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2014-10-11%2Bat%2B2.43.54%2BPM.png" height="200" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="Normal1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
But by the time we’ve averaged 20
years together, we’ve moved from the concrete world of daily weather that we
can experience into the abstracted world of climate averages. As we increase
the amount of time we’re averaging together, we see less of the impact of
weather variability and more of the average abstracted climate trend. It’s not
until we’ve averaged at least 20 years together (and many climate scientists
would rather average 30 or more years together) that we can even talk about
climate.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
When anyone talks about climate, or a
change in the climate, they are by definition not talking about weather. It’s
important to recognize that a single weather event may be extremely warm, cold,
wet, or dry, but that event cannot be used on its own as a line of evidence in
a conversation about climate. To talk about climate you must talk about
abstracted averages of weather that cannot be interpreted or perceived as a
thing that we can directly experience.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="text-indent: .5in;">
So next time you find yourself in a
conversation that confounds weather and climate, remember that the two things
are not interchangeable. Instead of responding with confusion to a question
like:<o:p></o:p></div>
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Respond with a brief explanation of the differences, perhaps utilize
some statistics, and then go outside and enjoy the weather.<o:p></o:p></div>
Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-54537630606588294832014-10-17T06:57:00.001-07:002014-10-17T06:58:48.080-07:00The Climate System as a Foreign Sports Car<div class="MsoNormal">
by Ben Brown-Steiner<br />
<br />
Imagine the
earth’s climate system as a foreign sports car owned by a playful friend. Your
friend is happy to let you look and listen to the car and will on occasion give
you a ride in it. But he’s unwilling to let you look under the hood or study
the user’s manual. If you want to try and understand how the car works, and
maybe even build your own, you are going to need to be clever and use all the
tools at your disposal to figure out how this car works.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is
very much like how earth scientists try to understand the real world. The real
world, even more so than the foreign sports car, is very complex and intricate.
We are unable to look under reality’s hood or read reality’s users manual. What
we are able to do is to make careful observations, come up with theories as to
how the real world works, test our theories with experiments and create models
to test and explore our understanding.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When you
start to build your own car, the first thing you are going to gather are the
major parts: a frame, an engine, wheels, rods, doors, spark plugs, fuel and so
on. For the Earth’s climate, instead of parts we have variables: ocean
temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, CO2 concentrations, and many
others.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However,
you need a plan to put your parts together.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You need an understanding of some of the interactions between the parts
you have and the function of your car. You know that fuel needs to be injected
into the engine in a particular way. You know that the wheels need to be
connected both to the engine and to the brakes if you ever want to actually
drive your car. Earth scientists know that sunlight heats the surface of the
earth, which in turn heats the atmosphere. They know that warm air holds more water
than cold air. Any successful climate model needs to have these elementary
parts.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To put
these parts together you need a design framework. For our car, this is a
engineering schematic of the parts and their functionality. We know when brakes
are applied, the velocity of the car decreases. For earth scientists, this is
typically in the form of code and equations. We know that precipitation falls
as rain if the temperature is above freezing and falls as snow if the
temperature is below freezing.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
During our
first attempt, there are many things we don’t know. We know that there is an
interaction between the stick shift and the engine. We know that there is some
interaction between the oceans and the atmosphere. But we don’t know the exact
details. To begin to understand these unknowns we must make careful
observations of the thing we’re trying to model and come up with tentative
hypothesis and theories. We can listen to the revving of the engine or make
observations of ocean and atmospheric temperatures.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
You then
put together a scheme that you think might work like the real thing. You design
some system (or write some code) that combines what you know with the things
you have hypothesized. Because you know that you are uncertain about particular
interactions, you make those parts easy to observe and easy to modify or swap
out with another part. This is what often is described as a parameterization or
a scheme in a climate model. It’s a variable or equation that you know you’ll
have to tweak or change out later on.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For instance, after
you run the car you notice that your car moves backwards when you think it
should be moving forwards or your climate snows when it should be raining. You
look carefully at your variables and design and equations and parameters and
try to find the error. You may have had your wires mismatched our you may have
had inaccurately represented the relationship between moisture and temperature.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The next
step takes this newfound understanding and incorporates it into your next
model. You fix your mistakes and you tune your parameterizations. Then you test
it again and repeat the whole process over and over until your understanding
grows. Fundamentally, this is is the way that science functions. It is an
interactive process. It’s never ending. You test and tune and observe and
reformulate and repeat. Eventually, if you are clever and lucky, your model
gets better and you gain a deeper understanding.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unfortunately,
since we are not able to look at the actual foreign sports car (because our friend
is too secretive) and since we will never see the inner workings of the real
world, we are never going to have a perfect model. Models by definition are
simplifications of the real thing. You strive to have a really good
simplification that provides insight and understanding. And you keep trying.
This is science.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-76917005745945668172014-09-15T11:38:00.000-07:002014-09-15T11:38:21.075-07:00The Grid Box<div class="MsoNormal">
by Ben Brown-Steiner</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qGQ2GNKYCNI/VBcwuC0LudI/AAAAAAAABQk/O7wQJ1WNbkQ/s1600/Minecraft-Britain.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qGQ2GNKYCNI/VBcwuC0LudI/AAAAAAAABQk/O7wQJ1WNbkQ/s1600/Minecraft-Britain.jpg" height="226" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The above image is taken from a
popular indie game called Minecraft that gives players free access to an
environment with in which they can interact with water, land, lava, and other
natural resources. It’s blocky textures are a unique style for modern games,
but serves as a wonderful example of how climate modelers look at our world.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The Earth is huge and complex. It’s
easy to lose yourself observing the infinite details in an ant colony, a
thunderstorm, or a sunset. And while that can be fun, if we’re to understand
what’s happening over the entire planet, we need to divide it up into parcels
and we need to try and understand how each chunk interacts to its surroundings.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Climate scientists who use models
are become comfortable with viewing the Earth as a set of boxes. In order to
get our increasingly powerful computers to create realistic simulations of our
world, we have to divide up the atmosphere, the oceans and the land into grid
boxes. For each grid box the computer tracks a single value for each variable.
A grid box has one temperature, one value for cloudiness, one relative
humidity, and so on. And a typical climate model has a time step of roughly 20
to 30 minutes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Currently, we consider a
high-resolution global climate model to have boxes that are around 60
kilometers or 35 miles per side. That’s roughly the length of Cayuga Lake. So a
global climate model isn’t capable of seeing Cayuga Lake! How is it possible
that a grid box that encompasses nearly all of Cayuga Lake and that jumps
forward in time every 30 minutes has any chance of being realistic?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s because, somehow, astonishingly, the movement of mass
and energy in the real world is amazingly organized. To some degree, it’s
intelligible, which means that we can study it, take some notes, and understand
the basic principles of how the it operates.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Even though you could be standing in
a parking lot in direct sunlight blinded and sweating and someone 100 feet away
could be lounging in the breeze under a shady tree, if you average all of the
temperatures in a region and track those values over time, you find smooth and
regular patterns. If you average every temperature in a day (from the high
temperature in the afternoon to the low temperature at night) and draw a graph,
you can see the regular and repeating cycle of our seasons.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
If you are examining a region’s
climate you look at these average cycles. You ask questions like: Are the
seasonal highs and lows changing over time? Is it drier, on average, this
decade than it was last decade? How does the average state of our region
influence the surrounding regions and the global climate? These questions are
the questions of climate science and the purpose of these questions is to
examine averages. In this sense, a large, abstracted grid box, is a really great
way of looking at the big picture.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
What, however, if you care about
the high temperature tomorrow? If you want to know whether you should bring an
umbrella on your walk right now, you do not ask a climate scientist. If you
did, you would get a funny look and perhaps a response like this: the average
daily high for September in Ithaca is 70 degrees and on average it rains 3.5
inches.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
If you ask the question “What’s the
weather going to be tomorrow?” you would ask a meteorologist, and the
meteorologist, because they don’t have to worry about the entire globe all at
once, can zoom in on smaller atmospheric patterns. They can run simulations
with time steps as short as 10 seconds and grid boxes as small as one mile
(~1.5 km) per side.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To look at a concrete example, let’s say you’re a climate
modeler trying to capture interactions between clouds, the Earth’s surface, and
solar radiation. You recognize that the real world is complicated and chaotic,
but you know that there is some underlying structure that you can model. You
take a look at a satellite photo over the ocean and it looks like this (from
NASA):</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mZLdEGsAOss/VBcxMuKz2xI/AAAAAAAABQw/EpMX9_2mvGA/s1600/cloud%2Bgrid.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mZLdEGsAOss/VBcxMuKz2xI/AAAAAAAABQw/EpMX9_2mvGA/s1600/cloud%2Bgrid.png" height="318" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
How are you going to recreate this
reality in your model? Clearly, you’ll have to simplify. If this particular
picture is 100 miles per side, you know that your computers can’t capture that
level of detail and have any chance of running on your computer. You need grid
boxes. What size grid box is appropriate? If you had the computational power,
you could build something like this:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7cbq04HyPlY/VBcxM918gxI/AAAAAAAABQ0/Pydd0qoknFY/s1600/fine%2Bgrid.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7cbq04HyPlY/VBcxM918gxI/AAAAAAAABQ0/Pydd0qoknFY/s1600/fine%2Bgrid.png" height="320" width="318" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
Even though you know you’ll have to
make simplifications, and parameterize (we’ll talk about these in another post)
some of the small cloud features, you can still represent the overall cloud
system you see in the satellite photo. But then your IT staff tells you that
there’s no way you can run the model at that resolution. You need to try a
somewhat coarser resolution:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i3n00u1eMGs/VBcxNJEx_wI/AAAAAAAABQ8/nElZuMFHkeg/s1600/med%2Bgrid.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i3n00u1eMGs/VBcxNJEx_wI/AAAAAAAABQ8/nElZuMFHkeg/s1600/med%2Bgrid.png" height="318" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
You aren’t all that happy with this
one since you lose a lot of detail and you’ll have to make different and
broader assumptions. For instance, you’ll have to completely forget about
resolving individual clouds. You’ll have to start representing cloudiness in a
grid box as a percentage (real climate models do this). After some time, you
hear from your IT staff that you can run this resolution, but it will take three
months to run 1 year of your simulated Earth at this resolution. For your
purposes, that’s not practical. Since you don’t want to give up you decide to
go to an even coarser resolution with grid boxes of roughly 35 miles per side:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mNcPpAG_ubQ/VBcxMqufrPI/AAAAAAAABQs/uvFmArTJLqo/s1600/coarse%2Bgrid.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mNcPpAG_ubQ/VBcxMqufrPI/AAAAAAAABQs/uvFmArTJLqo/s1600/coarse%2Bgrid.png" height="315" width="320" /></a></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
This one leaves out even more
detail. You can hardly recognize this as a system of clouds anymore. But in
exchange you can run your model at this resolution much more quickly and you’ll
be able to examine the details of what you think is going on with much more
confidence and data points. Right now, this is the grid box size of many
climate models. And even though they use this resolution, they can be used to
understand our Earth. The following image is an example of North America viewed
through a variety of resolutions used today:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2RoaBsIe6HM/VBcxMmpDpxI/AAAAAAAABRA/c6_iphxGk88/s1600/NA%2Bgrid.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2RoaBsIe6HM/VBcxMmpDpxI/AAAAAAAABRA/c6_iphxGk88/s1600/NA%2Bgrid.png" height="192" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The top
left resolution is a course resolution used in the past. The top right is
roughly the resolution of the average climate model today. The bottom left
image is roughly the resolution that is considered high resolution today (the
resolution that doesn’t quite see Cayuga Lake) and the bottom right resolution
is one used more by meteorological models than climate models.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As we’ve
mentioned before, a model by definition is a simplification. It’s not going to
simulate reality, and you are going to have to make sacrifices. But if you are
careful and you understand what parts of reality you’re ignoring and what parts
of reality you’re including in your model, you are able to interpret your
results and hopefully discover something new that wasn’t understood before. The
history of weather and climate modeling is a wonderful history of practical
limitations, amazing ingenuity and cleverness, and glorious tales of scientific
advancement of our understanding or our Earth.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-38988551290222382792014-09-09T11:09:00.000-07:002014-09-09T12:17:56.102-07:00Blog Post: Why Use Models at All?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">By
Ben Brown-Steiner</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">I intend on touching on many topics related to the broad expanse that is climate science, but for a first post I’m going to tackle a question that comes up every once in awhile and probably should come up more often: Why use models at all?</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br />At its purest science is about careful experimentation and observation. We take measurements. We come up with theories. We test those theories. And science gets done. Why bother with complicated models at all?</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br />Well, there are a lot of reasons. The first is that experimentation and observations can be expensive. Or extremely difficult. Or even impossible. We can’t create a second Earth and start tweaking with the climate. No one is advocating that neuroscientists start methodical lobotomies to learn about the brain. And it’s no longer computationally prohibitive to run a meteorological model a dozen times and look at the possible weather patterns in order to make informed decisions about tomorrow’s weather.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br />Second, as any tinkerer, engineer, mechanic, or chef will tell you, the best way to learn about how something works is to take it apart, look at the individual pieces and how they interact, and put it all back together. Modeling of any type, from simple toy models to expansive climate models, hold at their core this basic mentality.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br />To introduce the beauty and power of models of all sizes, I’m going to explore a particularly practical type of model: a model intended to help us cook a perfect steak. Apologies if you’re not a meat eater. Just pretend the rest of this post is talking about tofu or seitan.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br />Before we start, it’s always a good idea to define our terms. For our purposes, a simple and workable definition of a model is: <i>a model is a representation of some aspect of the real world</i>. I like this definition for its simplicity and its brevity. It has three main parts, each of which is important. First, “representation.” A representation is not the real thing, it doesn’t strive to be the real thing. But it does strive to approach the real thing. Any model is going to be a simplification. Second, “some aspect.” A model doesn’t try to represent the entirety of the world around us. A model represents a part of the whole, and often for a particular purpose. Third, “real world.” A model tries to represent some part of the actual real world that we all live in. A model strives to claim some aspect of “reality” and “truth.” These are big, philosophical concepts, but concepts that are at the core of any modeler or programmer’s vision for their model.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br />So let’s explore various types of models used to cook our perfect steak.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Perfect Steak Model #0:</span><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">To really start at the beginning, we should imagine how we would try and cook our perfect steak without any models informing our procedure. We could, perhaps, buy a thousand steaks and randomly toss them on the grill, flip them on occasion, and hope to discern the secret to steak. It’s extremely unlikely that you’ll learn much through this method. Alternatively, we could skip the whole idea of trying to cook steak ourselves and follow a procedure instead. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Perfect Steak Model #1:</span></b></span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">So this first model is less of a model and more of a procedure. This procedure goes: go to your favorite restaurant (or friend’s house) and have them make the perfect steak for you. Alternatively, we could describe this procedure more generally: go to an expert and rely upon the expert’s knowledge to produce a perfect steak for you.<br /><br />Really, this is a great model for the perfect steak. Chefs are culinary experts trained in the alchemical combination of physics, chemistry, thermodynamics, and practical realm of food science. They know how to make a great steak. For our current purposes, however, this is cheating.</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Perfect Steak Model #2:</span></span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">If you happen to enjoy cooking, you probably consider yourself an amateur steak-cooker (or perhaps an expert steak-cooker), and thus have your own procedure for cooking a perfect steak. This procedure, almost certainly, is based off other experts’ procedures which have been simplified for your purposes. For instance, there are many cookbooks with cooking times per side for a perfect steak that probably look something like this (taken from <a href="http://www.raysmarketonthecommon.com/">http://www.raysmarketonthecommon.com/</a>):<br /> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AprXw21ntRA/VA8-bbmvFyI/AAAAAAAABQA/FXEc2B7ByS8/s1600/SteakCooking.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AprXw21ntRA/VA8-bbmvFyI/AAAAAAAABQA/FXEc2B7ByS8/s1600/SteakCooking.jpg" height="137" width="400" /></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">This table is a simple procedure distilled from some expert model (i.e. representation of a real-world steak cooking procedure) prepared for the at-home cook’s needs. This simple table can be further simplified by the following recipe: “Heat a grill to 350 degrees F. Cook the steak on one side for 3 minutes plus one minute for every quarter inch of thickness over one-half inch. Then flip the steak over and cook the other side for two minutes plus one minute for each quarter inch thickness of the steak greater than one-half inch.” It’s not a graceful recipe. It ignores some of the complexity, but it gets the job done.<br /><br />The following graph is a more insightful representation of this our Perfect Steak Model #2:<span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></span></span>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tfGR20evL_I/VA8_LegF8yI/AAAAAAAABQI/vIgh6ezzT7c/s1600/SteakGraph.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tfGR20evL_I/VA8_LegF8yI/AAAAAAAABQI/vIgh6ezzT7c/s1600/SteakGraph.jpg" height="225" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Note that the blue line (for the first side) is quite simple. A straight line like this is called a linear trend. The red line (for the second side), however, is not so simple. It’s not linear, and this non-linearity implies that there is some underlying steak science that has been simplified in this method. </span></span></div>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Perfect Steak #3:</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">If you are a particularly dedicated at-home cook and was determined to produce the perfect steak, you might create on your own (or stumble upon, like me) this website<a href="https://groups.csail.mit.edu/uid/science-of-cooking/home-screen.html" target="_blank"> https://groups.csail.mit.edu/uid/science-of-cooking/home-screen.html</a>, which turns up the complexity to the maximum. This site includes many parameters (which we’ll talk about in a later post) including: thickness, time per side, meat type, starting temperature, and number of sides (i.e. number of times you flip the steak). If you fill out the individual parameters and click on the “cook” button, you’ll get a figure, similar to this one which represents a particular slice of meat and the amount of “doneness” throughout:</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pWTxdy0pAqE/VA9BN1m0TfI/AAAAAAAABQU/q4--0lgRMMU/s1600/SteakComplexifying.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pWTxdy0pAqE/VA9BN1m0TfI/AAAAAAAABQU/q4--0lgRMMU/s1600/SteakComplexifying.jpg" height="121" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Quite quickly you’ll notice the complexity captured by this method:</span></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">note that the meat keeps cooking for over five minutes after you remove it from the heat.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">note the percentage of meat that’s “done” for each category: raw, rare, medium rare, medium, well done, browned, and charred) and how complicated the interior of the steak looks.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">note an option to view the final temperature of each portion of the meat.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">if you visit the link, you’ll find caveats and sources and alternative methods to compare.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">This particular model, developed by the people at MIT for an online class on the science of cooking, has taken into account aspects of physics, chemistry, and food science to develop, parameterize, tune, and code this model. It’s informative, a little absurd, and a great analogy for the complexity possible for any type of system, for any type of model. If you follow this procedure, you can have high confidence that you’ll get your perfect steak.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />So now we need to address the question: Which model is the best model?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />All three methods above rely on assumptions and simplifications of the complex task of cooking a steak. Models help us understand a complex part of our world by simplifying the complexity into something that’s palatable (pun intended). Determining which model is the best model depends on you and your goals and various constraints. Do you want a quick-and-dirty method? Then methods #1 and #2 are probably the best for you. Do you like the challenge of an involved and detailed recipe? Then play with method #3 and tweak the model until you get exactly what you’re looking for.<br />I’ve stretched this analogy too far already, so I’ll leave this post here for now. I’ll touch on many other aspects of climate and climate modeling in upcoming posts.</span></span><br />
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-29747043899470079412014-05-06T11:37:00.000-07:002014-05-06T11:40:52.627-07:00The New National Climate Assessment and Related Resources<div class="p1">
Earlier today, May 6, 2014, the new <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report" target="_blank">National Climate Assessment</a> (NCA) was released. There's an event being webcasted from the Whitehouse right now (until 4:00 pm EDT). That's here: <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/live"><span class="s1">http://www.whitehouse.gov/live</span></a></div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bcRWr4b31FU/U2krFFdqv-I/AAAAAAAABPY/kWmStzG6JjI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-05-06+at+2.33.06+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bcRWr4b31FU/U2krFFdqv-I/AAAAAAAABPY/kWmStzG6JjI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-05-06+at+2.33.06+PM.png" height="400" width="308" /></a></div>
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The NCA has a few different access points online. It's a massive document with lots of rich multimedia. For accessing the NCA itself, you might start on <a href="http://www.globalchange.gov/"><span class="s1">http://www.globalchange.gov</span></a> which provides links to various pieces of the report.<br />
<br />
NOAA has also put together a page specifically for educators: <span class="s1"><a href="http://www.climate.gov/teaching/2014-national-climate-assessment-resources-educators">http://www.climate.gov/teaching/2014-national-climate-assessment-resources-educators</a>. This nicely breaks out the NCA's Report Findings, and I've cut and pasted that below. </span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="s1">
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Report Finding 1: Global climate is changing and this is apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations. The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/our-changing-climate"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 2: Some extreme weather and climate events have increased in recent decades, and new and stronger evidence confirms that some of these increases are related to human activities. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 3: Human-induced climate change is projected to continue, and it will accelerate significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gasses continue to increase. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/future-climate"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 4: Impacts related to climate change are already evident in many sectors and are expected to become increasingly disruptive across the nation throughout this century and beyond. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/widespread-impacts"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 5: Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including through more extreme weather events and wildfire, decreased air quality, and diseases transmitted by insects, food and water. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/human-health"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 6: Infrastructure is being damaged by sea level rise, heavy downpours, and extreme heat; damages are projects to increase with continued climate change. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/infrastructure"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 7: Water quality and water supply reliability are jeopardized by climate change in a variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/water-supply"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 8: Climate disruptions to agriculture have been increasing and are projects to become more severe over this century. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/agriculture"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 9: Climate change poses particular threats to Indigenous Peoples' health, well-being, and ways of life. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/indigenous-peoples"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 10: Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being affected by climate change. The capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts of extreme events like fires, floods, and severe storms is being overwhelmed. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/ecosystems-and-biodiversity"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 11: Ocean waters are becoming warmer and more acidic, broadly affecting ocean circulation, chemistry, ecosystems, and marine life. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/oceans"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
<li class="li1">Report Finding 12: Planning for adaptation (to address and prepare for impacts) and mitigation (to reduce future climate change, for example by cutting emissions) is becoming more widespread, but current implementation efforts are insufficient to avoid increasingly negative social, environmental, and economic consequences. <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/responses"><span class="s1">Learn More</span></a></li>
</ul>
</span></blockquote>
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<div class="p2">
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<div class="p1">
Note that the NCA has much of it's info broken down by region, so you can focus on what's most relevant where you are. </div>
<div class="p1">
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<div class="p1">
There's also a series of related videos found here: <a href="http://vimeo.com/channels/nca"><span class="s1">http://vimeo.com/channels/nca</span></a>. I've embedded the Health Chapter Video below.</div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" mozallowfullscreen="" src="//player.vimeo.com/video/92569617?portrait=0" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="500"></iframe> </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://vimeo.com/92569617">National Climate Assessment: Health chapter</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/thestorygroup">The Story Group</a> on <a href="https://vimeo.com/">Vimeo</a>.</div>
</div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="p1">
All of this is brand new today, so I've not had much chance to explore (though I did look at earlier public drafts). If you find things especially helpful for learning and teaching about climate change, it'd be nice to share it in the comments below.<br />
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<div class="p1">
<h2>
<b>About the Author</b></h2>
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<i><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Don Duggan-Haas is Director of Teacher Programs at the <a href="http://www.museumoftheearth.org/index.php?" target="_blank">PaleontologicalResearch Institution</a> in Ithaca. Along with colleagues Robert Ross and Warren Allmon, he authored </span></span></i><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://bit.ly/MarcellusBook" target="_blank">The Science Beneath the Surface: A VeryShort Guide to the Marcellus Shale</a>.</span></span></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-18378961429744094572014-03-18T07:18:00.000-07:002014-05-19T11:14:29.009-07:00The 2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan as a Gateway Drug to Energy Literacy (Part 3)<i>This post has been revised to reflect that the deadline for comments on the </i><a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/">2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan</a> <i>has been extended to May 30, 2014.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
This post is the third in a series that addresses the <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/">2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan</a> and some public reactions to that plan. As mentioned in the last post, this commentary relates to New York State and its energy planning most directly, but the nature of what is happening here related to energy is instructive for both other areas of the country and for other controversial topics.<br />
<br />
It is recommended that you <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy.html">start with Part 1</a>. And, <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy_17.html">here's Part 2, if you need a refresher</a>. <br />
<br />
The laser-like focus on stopping fracking in New York State is admirable. I strongly believe that the activist community, both in New York and around the country, have led to stronger regulations and improved safety and environmental practices. But I have concerns about unintended consequences. Advocating against one particular thing often makes you<i> de facto</i> for something else. If you've not thought carefully about what that something else is, success in advocacy may not bring positive change. Germany is, unfortunately, providing a strong example of this. The decision to phase out nuclear power has led Germany to burn more strip-mined brown coal in 2013 than they have in decades. See a recent New York Times story on that <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/19/world/europe/german-village-resists-plans-to-strip-it-away-for-the-coal-underneath.html?smid=tw-share&_r=2" target="_blank">here</a>. <br />
<br />
Finding a cheap and easy source of energy, using up the easy to get stores of fuel and pursuing the remaining reserves through increasingly environmentally damaging and expensive means has happened again and again throughout our history as this cartoon from 1861 shows: <!--EndFragment--><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cM4d22HQVoQ/UyeqyIX7QBI/AAAAAAAABPA/6PuHCYClrbk/s1600/Whales-toasting-Vanity-Fair-1861.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cM4d22HQVoQ/UyeqyIX7QBI/AAAAAAAABPA/6PuHCYClrbk/s1600/Whales-toasting-Vanity-Fair-1861.png" height="310" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The caption reads: <b>Grand Ball given by the Whales in honor of the discovery of the Oil Wells in Pennsylvania. </b></td></tr>
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While attention is given to transitioning to renewable sources, planning for effective transitions requires knowing where you’re starting. I’d like to help people better understand the system they are trying to change to reduce the likelihood of harmful unintended consequences. <br />
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While many speakers at the public hearing on the Energy Plan expressed the need to transition to renewables immediately, the laws of physics make that impossible (unless immediately means many years). Many cited the <a href="http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/NewYorkWWSEnPolicy.pdf">study led by Stanford University’s Mark Jacobson which acknowledges this</a> reality, though some of the speakers made it sound as if 100% renewable energy could somehow happen tomorrow. Energy production and use requires a lot of infrastructure - we have one kind and need another. We can't make that new infrastructure instantly and we can't do it without using the existing energy system. Making solar panels and windmills requires energy, and to replace our current energy infrastructure, it would take lots of energy - more than can be provided from renewable sources right now. <br />
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Replacing the current energy system with one that is 100% renewable would also require lots of space. For example, if we wanted to keep <a href="http://www.buffalo.edu/sustainability/solar-strand.html" target="_blank">the University of Buffalo's 750 kilowatt quarter-of-a-mile-long Solar Strand</a> the same width and extend it so that it was long enough to match the generating capacity of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Nuclear_Generating_Station" target="_blank">Ontario's 6.3 gigawatt Bruce Nuclear Generating Station</a>, we'd need to extend the Solar Strand from Buffalo to Phoenix, Arizona! I think it makes more sense to put solar on rooftops than to use bare ground, so think about how many rooftops that would require, and think about how much energy would be required to make all of those solar panels! That's for a single (admittedly very large) power plant! <br />
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None of the above is intended to imply that the draft can't be substantially improved - it can. But the gist of the initiatives are about transitioning away from fossil fuels and to reduce energy demand, and it seems to me that most of the commentators failed to address that at all. <br />
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Some very brief feedback on the Plan itself:</h4>
The Plan does need to include a brief summary of its goals and initiatives in the first few pages, perhaps in the form of an executive summary. That should be followed by a brief overview of where we're starting from - that is; it needs to educate readers about our current energy system, and important changes in that system in recent years.<br />
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<b>All of the problems discussed above can be addressed in a range of ways, but there's one strategy that addresses them all - <span style="color: red;">use less energy</span>.</b> And this idea is, thankfully, addressed directly and frequently in the Draft 2014 New York State Energy Plan. Unfortunately, this was only mentioned by a minority of the speakers at the February meeting.<br />
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Of course, the Plan itself warrants much more feedback than I've provided in these closing brief paragraphs. I have spent much more time discussing the perception of the Plan than I have discussing the plan itself, because perception really matters. I hope readers of this series of posts will comment on the <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/" target="_blank">Draft New York Energy Plan</a> before May 30, 2014. </div>
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I further hope that they will take a careful look at the Plan before they do so. That doesn't require reading all of its many hundreds of pages, but it does require looking closely at the content you know and care the most about. Take advantage of the electronic presentation and search for terms that you think are most important to address, and read those sections carefully. Scan through to get a feeling for completeness, and for balance. Take notes as you go and then craft it into feedback that addresses both what you think is appropriately addressed in the Plan and, being as specific as possible, address its shortcomings and offer specific suggestions on how to improve it. </div>
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Our energy system matters a great deal for almost everything we do. I'm delighted by the interest that changes to that system brings to it. Hydrofracking is catalyzing learning and teaching about the energy system, and political action too. Let's work to make all of our roles in that as beneficial as possible. </div>
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<b>About the Author</b></h2>
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<i><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Don Duggan-Haas is Director of Teacher Programs at the <a href="http://www.museumoftheearth.org/index.php?" target="_blank">PaleontologicalResearch Institution</a> in Ithaca. Along with colleagues Robert Ross and Warren Allmon, he authored </span></span></i><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://bit.ly/MarcellusBook" target="_blank">The Science Beneath the Surface: A VeryShort Guide to the Marcellus Shale</a>.</span></span></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-88666405061316609862014-03-17T11:21:00.001-07:002014-05-19T11:05:32.548-07:00The 2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan as a Gateway Drug to Energy Literacy (Part 2)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i>This post was updated to reflect that the deadline for comments on the </i> <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/">2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan</a> <i>has been extended to May 30. </i></div>
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This post is the second in a series that addresses the <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/">2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan</a> and some public reactions to that plan. Click to see <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a> and <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy_18.html" target="_blank">Part 3</a>. While this commentary relates to New York State and its energy planning most directly, the nature of what is happening here related to energy is instructive for both other areas of the country and for other controversial topics. The <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/The-Board/Board-Members.aspx">State Energy Planning Board</a> is <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/Process/Comments.aspx">accepting comments</a> on the Plan through May 30, 2014, so this is also a nudge to encourage people to comment. These reflections were inspired by my participation in a public meeting about the Plan on Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at the University of Buffalo. I’ll say a (very short) bit about the Plan. Then I’ll blend together a bit about the meeting with reflections on its implications for those engaged in energy education and activism. I’ll include in that discussion some feedback for the Plan that might have implications for policymakers and activists.</div>
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If you've not read the first post in the series, you might want to do that before reading further. It's short, and right <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy.html">here</a>. And it includes an instantly scored little quiz.<br />
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A bit about the plan</h4>
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The Plan lays out 15 Initiatives as the center of a set of documents totaling 682 pages. Find those documents <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/Plans/2014.aspx">here</a>. The short version of the initiatives is in the box below. Included in the Plan’s goals is the reduction of carbon emissions from the energy sector 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.<br />
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<td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in;" valign="top" width="479"><div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 01</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">: Realign energy efficiency policies to work
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 02</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">: Enable and facilitate new energy business
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compensated</span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "MS Mincho"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "MS Mincho";"> </span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">for activities that contribute to grid
efficiency. Maximize the cost effective utilization of all behind-the-meter
resources that can reduce the need for new infrastructure through expanded
demand management, energy efficiency, clean distributed generation, and
storage. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 03:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Establish and implement building codes
and standards that will help support energy efficiency and clean
energy. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 04:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Establish a $1 billion New York Green
Bank to unlock and mobilize private sector capital for greater investment in
New York’s clean energy economy. The Green Bank will work to eliminate
current market barriers and fill financing gaps by partnering with private
sector intermediaries through the use of various forms of financial support
such as credit enhancement, warehousing, and securitization, making a much
larger supply of private capital available to finance clean energy
projects. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 05:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Coordinate renewable energy policies
to strategically harness the many resources that the State can provide to
solar, wind (offshore and land-based), bioenergy, geothermal,
hydrokinetic, storage, and other power supply options. Implemented strategies
should take into account the opportunities provided by the diverse renewable
resources available in different regions of the State. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 06</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">: Update and modernize electricity and gas
delivery systems to replace aging infrastructure and ensure service quality
and reliability with a more integrated and distributed energy network. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 07:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Support community-based energy
planning and facilitate public-private partnerships to develop smart,
integrated energy networks to spur regional economic development. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 08:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Accelerate securing of critical
infrastructure to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of an
increasingly complex and interconnected energy system, including
transportation, liquid fuels, electricity, and natural gas
infrastructure. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 09:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Reduce reliance on petroleum products
for heating buildings by supporting the use of clean alternatives to heating
oil and expanding access to natural gas in the near term while pursuing
strategies to reduce natural gas leakage. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 10: </span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Give customers more choice and control of
their energy usage to determine what services they value by cultivating a
more competitive market around home energy solutions. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 11:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Provide improved information and
access to energy-related data to support customers’ ability to make educated
decisions about clean and efficient energy investments, including labeling
mechanisms for commercial and residential buildings.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 12:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Increase transportation alternatives
and vehicle diversity to harness the benefits of decreased dependence on
oil and a cleaner, more connected, and more flexible transportation
sector. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 13:</span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> Bring innovative information
technology to transportation system users to support more efficient and safe
travel.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 14: </span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Encourage clean technology innovation and
commercialization to maximize the economic impacts of a vibrant private
sector in New York.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Initiative 15 </span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Foster a clean energy workforce targeting
participants across all aspects of the energy sector.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">THE 2014 DRAFT NEW
YORK STATE ENERGY PLAN INITIATIVES. </span></b><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Within the Plan, each Initiative is
further explained with between one and nine bullet points. The Initiatives
are detailed on pages 31 – 49 of </span><a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/Plans/2014.aspx"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Volume 1</span></a><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />
<br />
The Plan seems to focus largely upon transitioning away from fossil fuels and includes a fair amount of attention to reducing energy consumption. You wouldn’t know that if you attended the meeting I did.<br />
<h4>
A bit about the public hearing</h4>
</div>
The structure of the meeting was simple. It wasn’t for the Energy Planning Board to provide information to the public. It was solely for the purpose of the public to give feedback to the Board. People who wished to speak signed in before entering the meeting room and were given numbers indicating their place in the queue. I was number 29. Each speaker was given five minutes to speak. <br />
<br />
At least 25 of the 28 speakers who preceded me directed their comments primarily to fracking. Clearly, a great many people were passionate about what they addressed - many choked back tears and at least one let out a few full sobs. People are clearly scared. It was powerful testimony, but too many people said things that simply aren't true. That doesn't make their fear or their passion any less real, but it raises important questions. <br />
<br />
I really felt as though I'd read a different document than others who spoke. As I watched and listened to speaker after speaker quaking with fear about hydrofracking, I grew increasingly frustrated. The things that left me frustrated fall into a few different categories:<br />
<div>
<ul>
<li>While the Energy Plan does not ignore fracking, it is nothing like the focus of the Plan, nor is it even central to the plan;</li>
<li>Many speakers made claims about the content of the Plan that simply are not true;</li>
<li>Comments focused upon fear much more than solutions; and, most frustrating of all;</li>
<li>Most of the speakers seemed not to know where New York State energy comes from now, yet they are strident about how the system needs to change. </li>
</ul>
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<b>This was not about the New York Fracking Plan (which remains a great unknown)</b>, it was about the Draft New York <i>Energy</i> Plan, yet nearly every speaker focused primarily upon the process that's been nicknamed fracking. Fracking is addressed in the Plan, but it is hardly the focus, and it is noted that there is currently a moratorium on high volume hydraulic fracturing in the state. It would be utterly irresponsible to ignore fracking or to make assertions that it either will or will not happen in the state. Because of the moratorium and the uncertainty of its future, the Plan makes two sets of predictions – one for if the moratorium is lifted and another for if it is not. See page 18 of <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/Plans/2014.aspx">Volume 2: Sources</a>. Indeed, the draft plan sets a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 and pays a great deal of attention to energy conservation. An 80% reduction in emissions is not possible without moving away from fossil fuels including fracked gas.
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<b>Some things said about the content of the Plan were simply false. </b>The Plan does not claim that natural gas is clean, as many speakers claimed. It does imply that gas is less dirty than coal or petroleum, but the Plan also advocates for moving away from dependence on all fossil fuels. Claiming that gas is less dirty than coal and petroleum strikes me as reasonable as research indicates that more than 100,000 Americans die each year from emissions from coal and oil. <a href="http://ens-newswire.com/2013/09/04/air-pollution-blamed-for-200000-early-u-s-deaths-each-year/" target="_blank">Here's one story on that</a>, and the research paper that the story draws from is <a href="mailto:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231013004548" target="_blank">here</a> (but behind a pay wall).<br />
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<b>The Plan focuses largely on solutions yet speakers focused largely on fear. </b>While fear can serve as a motivation for some people in some contexts, it often drives people to tune out. <i>“I’m terrified – why aren’t you more like me?”</i> is not part of an effective recruiting strategy to get people to join your cause for the long haul.<br />
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<b>Good decision-making requires good information. </b>What was most troubling to me was that most speakers seemed to not know where we get our energy from now, yet they have passionate feelings about where it should and should not come from. Further, an overnight transition of our energy infrastructure is simply impossible and would be tremendously wasteful if it were possible. It requires energy and time to make infrastructure. Right now, we have one kind of infrastructure and we need another. <br />
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<a href="http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=NY" target="_blank">Where New York State energy comes from is really not that hard to find</a>. Indeed, this data is a focus of <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/Plans/2014.aspx">Volume 2 of the Plan</a>. This is what New York’s energy consumption looked like for total energy use in 2011:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cOg3Dt2aCKM/UyZp6adpDpI/AAAAAAAABO0/IbZ2_4kyX7Q/s1600/NYS-Total-Energy-Pie2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cOg3Dt2aCKM/UyZp6adpDpI/AAAAAAAABO0/IbZ2_4kyX7Q/s1600/NYS-Total-Energy-Pie2011.png" height="400" width="285" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Data from:<a href="http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=NY#tabs-1" target="_blank"> http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=NY#tabs-1</a>. On pages 19-20 of <a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/Plans/2014.aspx" target="_blank">Volume 2, End-Use Energy</a> is a graphic that includes similar data along with the total amount of energy generated, and energy lost in conversion. That graphic also shows all petroleum products together and, taken together, energy generated from petroleum nearly equals that from natural gas.</span></td></tr>
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Why do I think most speakers didn’t know where our energy comes from? I asked. After watching the 28 speakers who came before me, I discarded my prepared remarks and instead asked the audience the question I asked readers in <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a> of this two part series of blog posts. I asked them to raise their hands to indicate what they thought were the largest sources of energy for electric generation in the state. Many, I think most, in the room participated in the polling – but not a single person correctly identified natural gas and nuclear power as the two largest sources of power for electric generation in New York State.<br />
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I'll close Part 2 with this: <b>I wonder how we can make informed decisions about our energy future if we don't know where we get our energy from now.</b><br />
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Note that the graph above is for total energy and I asked about energy for electric power generation. To see the sources of energy for electric power generation in an interactive map of all 50 states, <a href="http://bit.ly/e-stateportfolios." target="_blank">click here</a>. This map was also included in <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a>.</div>
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<b>About the Author</b></h2>
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<i><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Don Duggan-Haas is Director of Teacher Programs at the <a href="http://www.museumoftheearth.org/index.php?" target="_blank">PaleontologicalResearch Institution</a> in Ithaca. Along with colleagues Robert Ross and Warren Allmon, he authored </span></span></i><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://bit.ly/MarcellusBook" target="_blank">The Science Beneath the Surface: A VeryShort Guide to the Marcellus Shale</a>.</span></span></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-77065280775461603292014-03-12T12:13:00.002-07:002014-05-19T11:06:50.848-07:00The 2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan as a Gateway Drug to Energy Literacy (Part 1)<div class="p1">
This is the first post of a three part series. Click to see <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a> and <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy_17.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a>.<br />
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On Tuesday, February 25, I attended the public meeting on the <b><a href="http://energyplan.ny.gov/" target="_blank">2014 Draft New York State Energy Plan</a>. </b>It was a fascinating day. This post is the first of a three part series that reflects on the meeting and its implications. I’m hopeful that this set of posts will inspire New Yorkers to take a close look at the plan and to offer feedback. This first post is the shortest of the three and starts off with a one-question quiz.</div>
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After you answer the question and click submit, you’ll see a link to a map that shows the answer for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. After you’ve taken the quiz, explore the map, paying attention to the variation in where electricity comes from around the country, looking for things that surprise you.</div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="906" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/embeddedform?formkey=dFh3TURxakpKRXpJYjhySWpIZ3Jqd1E6MA" width="400">Loading...</iframe><br />
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The map linked from the response page is also embedded below. How did you do?</div>
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<b><span style="background-color: white; color: red; font-size: x-large;">No peeking!</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="background-color: white; color: red; font-size: x-large;">Don’t scroll on until you’ve taken the quiz!</span></b></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rvBs5yK1gSA/UyCtUtklHeI/AAAAAAAABOg/bGBTtltWyhk/s1600/ElectricPies2012key+copy.001.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rvBs5yK1gSA/UyCtUtklHeI/AAAAAAAABOg/bGBTtltWyhk/s1600/ElectricPies2012key+copy.001.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The five largest sources for the US are labeled. The question, however, was about your state.<br />
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Electricity Sources for US States Prezi - <a href="http://bit.ly/e-stateportfolios" target="_blank">click here</a> to see an interactive version of the map.</h3>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YpDzDr9UKVc/UyCkg1xZ05I/AAAAAAAABOQ/2h6AgySeP1M/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-12+at+2.15.46+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YpDzDr9UKVc/UyCkg1xZ05I/AAAAAAAABOQ/2h6AgySeP1M/s1600/Screen+Shot+2014-03-12+at+2.15.46+PM.png" height="250" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Data from: <a href="http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data.cfm#consumption">http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data.cfm#consumption</a>. <br />
See the interactive map here: <a href="http://bit.ly/e-stateportfolios">http://bit.ly/e-stateportfolios</a>.</td></tr>
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The structure of the public meeting was simple. There was no formal presentation about the plan. There were members of the Planning Board who helped write it, but they weren’t there to give out information. They were there to take it in. People signed in before entering the large room, and, if they were inclined to speak, they signed up for that. Each speaker was allowed five minutes. In the course of the roughly three-and-a-half hour meeting, about 40 people spoke. I was number 29.</div>
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I had brought prepared remarks with me to read for my five-minute slot. After listening to the 28 who came before me, I decided to ditch my prepared statement and I asked the question I just asked you instead. The question was directed to the audience, not to the Energy Planning Board. Though the question wasn’t directed to the Board, I was putting on a show for them, to highlight important changes that I think need to be made in the Energy Plan before it is finalized.</div>
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I give a lot of talks that are sort of about the Marcellus Shale and hydrofracking, but really, that’s just a hook to get people in the door. The talk I give most frequently is titled, <a href="http://bit.ly/MarcellusGateway" target="_blank">There’s no such thing as a free megawatt: Hydrofracking as a gateway drug to energy literacy</a>. I ask the question above early in my talk and ask people to raise their hands twice as I go down through the list. Before actually having them raise their hands, I note that for most of the last 15 years, the two biggest sources of electricity have been roughly tied for first place, and that in 2008, each provided 31%. Then I have them raise their hands as I read down through the list.</div>
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You know how you did on the quiz. How do you think the people in the audience, who mostly came to give feedback on the Energy Plan did on the quiz? We’ll get to that in the second part of this three part post.</div>
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This is the first post of a three part series. Click to see <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a> and <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-2014-draft-new-york-state-energy_17.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a>.<br />
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<b>About the Author</b></h2>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Don Duggan-Haas is Director of Teacher Programs at the <a href="http://www.museumoftheearth.org/index.php?" target="_blank">PaleontologicalResearch Institution</a> in Ithaca. Along with colleagues Robert Ross and Warren
Allmon, he authored </span></span></i><span style="color: black; font-size: 11.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://bit.ly/MarcellusBook" target="_blank">The Science Beneath the Surface: A VeryShort Guide to the Marcellus Shale</a>.</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-74210528601682680412012-12-20T07:09:00.001-08:002012-12-21T07:27:49.026-08:00The Having of Holiday Climate Change Chats <br />
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The<b> </b>Having of Holiday Climate Change Chats </h2>
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<i>Tyler K. Perry</i></div>
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With the holidays right around the corner, many families will soon gather around the dinner table and spend quality time with one another, laughing, sharing memories, and in many cases debating current events. My family can argue over just about anything, whether it be about whose fault it was for leaving my adolescent father in the grocery store parking lot 30 years ago, to how this country should be run and by whom. We are a small close knit family, that helps one another out when needed, and we all love each other very much. However, whenever the whole family is together, somehow, some way, a controversial topic rears its ugly head and soon a heated debate is ignited. Once that first spark flies, not even my mother’s famous homemade creamed onions can contain this clash of opinions. Maybe it’s my grandmother’s stubbornness, or my Aunt’s short fuse, but “teams” are formed and a formidable argument ensues. Most of the time it is usually over by the time pumpkin pie is served, and the consensus is always the same, agree to disagree. </div>
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As a child these arguments caused sadness and frustration that my family would rather argue at the dinner table about concepts that I did not understand, instead of laughing and recounting fond memories together like the families in all the Christmas movies. However, now that I am older and I have opinions of my own, I feel myself becoming tempted to join in the debates, especially those revolving around science and the environment. As a senior in the Environmental and Forestry Biology Department at the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, I consider myself well versed in a number of scientific and environmental topics and controversies. I would like to share my knowledge and opinions with my family, without getting into a heated argument over dinner and letting my mashed potatoes go cold. When everyone is yelling, no one is listening. </div>
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Hurricane Sandy tore through the Northeastern coast in a terrifying display of Mother Nature’s force. It is therefore a feasible prediction that Sandy, and the ever growing talk of climate change may be a dinner table topic this holiday season. Climate change is a real issue that is affecting our everyday lives and is not going away anytime soon. However there are those out there that dispute the science and still believe that climate change is just a myth. If those naysayers happen to be sitting around your dinner table this holiday season, I have outlined steps to take that will help you get your point regarding climate change (or any other environmental topic) across respectfully and effectively. At the end of the post are some resources for going further. </div>
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The first thing that you need to do, is to make sure your audience knows that you respect their opinion and are willing to listen to what they have to say. The conversation is going to go smoothly when both parties know there is mutual respect. </div>
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The biggest problem with the public opinion of climate change is separating fact from fiction. Setting the record straight on some of the myths out there is number one. According to the “<a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/Debunking-Handbook-now-freely-available-download.html" target="_blank">Debunking Handbook</a>” that was referenced in<a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2011/12/climate-change-talking-points-for.html" target="_blank"> the holiday post last year</a>, it’s better to disprove a myth with three to four facts, rather than ten or twelve. It’s important to not bombard your family with high level scientific facts, when you just spit facts at a person that is not familiar with science, your argument will not be effective. Your goal is to avoid an overly complicated alternative explanation; otherwise people will prefer to believe an easy to understand myth. For example, many people believe that climate and weather is the same thing. The best way to explain the difference is that weather tells you the conditions outside right now, and climate tells you what the conditions will be outside for the whole year. </div>
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Even after you present your choice of facts to your family, if your dinner table is still not completely convinced that climate change is real, all hope is not lost. Even with facts such as 2012 having a 99.99999999% chance of being the hottest year on record for the continental United States, making seven out of the top ten hottest years on record, happening in the last 15 years (More info at <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/november-was-333rd-straight-month-with-above-average-temps-15361" target="_blank">Climate Central</a> and <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/11" target="_blank">NOAA</a>) they still aren’t swayed; tell them that it doesn’t matter. Yes, you heard me correctly, the things we as humans need to do to stop climate change, are good practices in general. We have a responsibility as people on this earth to take care of her. Why should people wait for more and more record breaking years, horrible floods and super storms until they are undoubtedly convinced that climate change is real? We all should work to reduce our carbon footprint. Carpooling to the next family event to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, is just a good idea in general. And remind your naysayers that many practices that reduce greenhouse gasses will also save some of the green in their wallet. Rather than grumbling about the price of gas, see it as an incentive to monitor your energy use, amend your daily driving habits and reap the budgetary benefits. </div>
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<a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201201-201211.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201201-201211.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201201-201211.gif" style="color: #dd9900; text-decoration: underline;" title="November 2012 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles"><span style="font-size: 0.8em;">January–November 2012 Blended Land and Sea Surface<br />Temperature Percentiles</span></a></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 11px; font-style: italic; line-height: 17px;">Credit: <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/11" target="_blank">NOAA</a></span></div>
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All in all it while it’s important to try and convince your family the importance of good environmental practices, it is imperative that you enjoy the time that you have during the holidays to appreciate and spend time with those that are important to you. So if you feel like your stewardship lesson is taking a turn for the worse, steer it in the direction of sports teams, fine wine or if all else fails ask that fateful question of who left dad in the parking lot when he was ten.</div>
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<i>Tyler Perry is a senior at SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and an intern at the Paleontological Research Institution.</i></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Resources for Going Further</span></div>
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<b>There are many great resources for deepening understandings. </b>Here are two that include specific attention to how to talk to climate change contrarians:</div>
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<li><a href="http://earththeoperatorsmanual.com/">Earth: The Operators' Manual </a>-- a PBS series with an accompanying website.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/Debunking-Handbook-now-freely-available-download.html">The Debunking Handbook</a> -- this short publications offers valuable insights into how to avoid your advocacy backfiring. You may be familiar with the feeling more entrenched in your beliefs after a debate. Chances are fairly good that the person you debated also feels his or her beliefs more strongly.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/" target="_blank">Climate Access</a>'s<a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/T&T_Lessons%20Learned%202012.pdf" target="_blank"> </a><i><a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/T&T_Lessons%20Learned%202012.pdf" target="_blank">Tip Sheet: Lessons Learned in 2012</a>. </i>This one page document organizes takeaway lessons into three key themes: 1) communications, 2) skeptics, and 3) impacts</li>
<li>Our 2011 holiday talking points post, <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2011/12/climate-change-talking-points-for.html" target="_blank">Climate Change Talking Points for Holiday Gatherings</a> This post suggests focusing on four key ideas; that climate change is: 1) real; 2) human caused; 3) serious, and; 4) solvable. </li>
<li>Our 2010 holiday talking points post, <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2010/12/tree-in-living-room-as-opportunity-to.html" target="_blank">A tree in the living room as an opportunity to teach about carbon</a>. </li>
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You might look back and think about how to apply the lessons from <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/Debunking-Handbook-now-freely-available-download.html">The Debunking Handbook</a> to some of our earlier posts. </div>
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What suggestions do you have? Please use the comments for sharing ideas.</div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-90221558731931724772012-09-04T08:35:00.000-07:002012-09-04T14:19:27.293-07:00Climate Access -- Lessons from the Field: Talking about Climate and FrackingMost of this post is an excerpt from a blog post titled "<a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/blog/lessons-field-talking-about-fracking-and-climate" target="_blank">LESSONS FROM THE FIELD: TALKING ABOUT FRACKING AND CLIMATE</a>" on the <a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/" target="_blank">Climate Access</a> website. The excerpt describes some of the Museum of the Earth's work related to Marcellus Shale education and how we are using the public interest in the Marcellus as a teachable moment to engage the public in learning about energy and climate.<br />
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As the Climate Access post on lessons from the field came out while we were running an educator workshop that included a field trip to a well pad where drilling was underway, I've also included a couple of images of the field trip.<br />
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Before getting to the excerpts and images, I'll share a bit about Climate Access by quoting from their "About" page:<br />
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<div style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: #2d2d2d; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 19.2px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In the fall of 2011, </span><a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://www.thesocialcapitalproject.org/" style="color: #ed1c24; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The Resource Innovation Group’s Social Capital Project</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">, in partnership with the </span><a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://climatesociety.rutgers.edu/" style="color: #ed1c24; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Rutgers Initiative on Climate and Society</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> and the</span><a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://stonehousesummit.com/" style="color: #ed1c24; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Stonehouse Standing Circle</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">, launched Climate Access to provide climate communications thinkers and doers with access to the necessary tools, knowledge and people. This is all in the name of increasing public support for climate policies and engagement in programs that help people, organizations and communities change their energy and other carbon-intensive behaviors.</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Climate Access facilitates the rapid peer-to-peer exchange of information, bringing together those working on climate communications from various organizations and institutions. As such, Climate Access serves as a network of networks that fosters connection and collaboration and helps turn ideas into action. It also features the Social Capital Project’s ability to synthesize and analyze the most relevant research and campaign strategies.</span></div>
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There's a great deal of interest on <a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/" target="_blank">Climate Access</a> and on the sites of their partner organizations linked above. Check that out after reading the excerpt below, and about the work that other members of Climate Access are doing related to hydraulic fracturing's role in the energy and climate systems.<br />
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Here's the excerpt:<br />
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Through a series of grant-funded initiatives (<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">NSF 1016359, 1035078, Smith-Lever NYC-124481</span>), the Paleontological Research Institution (PRI) is working to nurture evidence-based understandings of Earth systems issues associated with both hydraulic fracturing and the larger energy system. We see the controversy surrounding the Marcellus Shale as a teachable moment – a great many people are suddenly interested in where their energy comes from. This provides an opportunity for nurturing understandings of not only the Marcellus, but also the broader energy system, and also the larger Earth system.</blockquote>
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We believe that the Marcellus cannot be understood in isolation and are striving to not only provide evidence-based understanding with as little bias as possible (that is, we will not advocate for or against drilling in the Marcellus Shale), but also help our audiences to investigate deeper questions than the question many in the Ithaca-area are initially drawn to. Residents justifiably focus on the question: Is this bad for the environment? Without contextualization, the answer is invariably “yes.” A more appropriate context-dependent question might be, “Is this better or worse for the environment than what we are doing now, or might reasonably do in the near future, to meet our energy needs?”</blockquote>
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A simple pre-assessment used in some of our programming asks participants to identify the two largest energy sources for electric generation in New York state. The most common answers by far are coal and hydro, which rank numbers four and three, respectively behind natural gas and nuclear which are essentially even in their shares of production for the last several years. By gently drawing attention to the fact that most of us don’t really have much of a sense where our energy comes from now, we have had some success in engaging in richer discussions that have, to some degree, shifted people away from their poles related to this polarizing issue.</blockquote>
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Education regarding the Marcellus Shale serves as a case study for both developing outreach approaches for emergent energy issues and for how these issues relate to the teaching of other controversial topics. Our goal is to develop heuristic approaches that others can adapt to their community’s needs before polarization becomes entrenched. Strategies include networking formal and informal educators within communities to develop energy education programming.</blockquote>
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We have also produced “<a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://www.museumoftheearth.org/outreach.php?page=92387" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">The Marcellus Papers</span></a>,” a series of pamphlets that provide an overview of various aspects of the science related to hydraulic fracturing and the Marcellus Shale, and we are working to define what it means to be Marcellus Shale literate, and also <a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://thesciencebeneaththesurface.wordpress.com/2012/01/16/what-do-you-need-to-understand-to-teach-about-the-marcellus-shale-part-2-of-2-resources-for-teaching/" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">what is needed to be aneffective Marcellus Shale educator</span></a>. <a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://prezi.com/em-or03bprhy/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-free-megawatt-the-marcellus-shale-as-a-gateway-drug-to-energy-literacy/" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">There's No Such Thing as a Free Megawatt</span></a> is a presentation (created with <a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://prezi.com/" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" target="_blank"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">Prezi</span></a>) that has been used to provide an overview of the Marcellus Shale and contextualize it in the changing energy system. </blockquote>
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Our greatest challenge is helping people to shift from working to fortify their position to deepening their understandings of the related issues. In this work, we are finding recent work by Daniel Kahneman (<a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">Thinking Fast and Slow</span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">)</span> helpful as we strive to help people shift their mode of thinking in Kahneman’s terms from System 1 to System 2, and Joe Romm’s <a data-bitly-type="bitly_hover_card" href="http://www.amazon.com/Language-Intelligence-Lessons-persuasion-Shakespeare/dp/1477452222/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1346303221&sr=1-1&keywords=joe+romm" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">Language Intelligence: </span></span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: black;">Lessons on persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and LadyGaga</span></span></a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">, </span>as we work to make the way we speak and write about these issues more understandable.</blockquote>
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=== END OF EXCERPT - CONTINUE READING <a href="http://www.climateaccess.org/blog/lessons-field-talking-about-fracking-and-climate" target="_blank">HERE</a> ===</div>
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On August 29, 2012 we visited a well pad where drilling was taking place as part of one of our educator workshops. A future post will offer more images and a description of the visit. For now, here's a picture and an interactive panorama to help give a sense of what such a site is like.<br />
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Note that the drilling rig is only on site while drilling is taking place. That process lasts several days for each well on the pad, but current practice is to drill only one well before removing the rig.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vTP3TsZWcjY/UD9e9DMIqxI/AAAAAAAAGdg/Uv4jH7dlTtY/s512/GEDC0325.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vTP3TsZWcjY/UD9e9DMIqxI/AAAAAAAAGdg/Uv4jH7dlTtY/s320/GEDC0325.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
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<i>The drilling rig.</i></div>
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<i>An interactive panorama (a <a href="http://photosynth.net/" target="_blank">Photosynth</a>) of the well pad</i></div>
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Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-51529764146219929642012-07-02T07:45:00.000-07:002012-07-03T13:46:14.672-07:00Climate Change: Lines of Evidence -- videos from the National Research CouncilThe National Research Council's <i>America's Climate Choices</i> project has released<a href="http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/summaries-and-videos-from-the-acc-series/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-videos/" target="_blank"> a series of videos</a> that provide an excellent brief overview of scientific understandings of climate change. <br />
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The videos describe both the lines of evidence and the history of the science that led to our current understandings of climate change. <br />
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The series of videos can be watched in separate segments, or as a single 26 minute long video. Here are the chapter titles linked to the videos:<br />
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<a href="http://youtu.be/qEPVyrSWfQE" style="color: #074d7c; text-decoration: none;">Chapter 1: What is Climate?</a></div>
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<a href="http://youtu.be/-IuVzcp39rs" style="color: #1772af; text-decoration: none;">Chapter 2: Is Earth Warming?</a></div>
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<a href="http://youtu.be/3JX-ioSmNW8" style="color: #1772af; text-decoration: none;">Chapter 3: Greenhouse Gases</a></div>
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<a href="http://youtu.be/nlu21CNd34Q" style="color: #1772af; text-decoration: none;">Chapter 4: Increased Emissions</a></div>
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<a href="http://youtu.be/hVvzVs1AKGY" style="color: #1772af; text-decoration: none;">Chapter 5: How Much Warming?</a></div>
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<a href="http://youtu.be/0V2HYZbFLn8" style="color: #1772af; text-decoration: none;">Chapter 6: Solar Influence</a></div>
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<a href="http://youtu.be/2_10jtPCjQw" style="color: #1772af; text-decoration: none;">Chapter 7: Natural Cycles</a></div>
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The project has also produced a booklet of the same name. You can read the pamphlet online and download a pdf of <i>Climate Change: Lines of Evidence </i><a href="http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/more-resources-on-climate-change/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-booklet/" target="_blank">here</a>. <br />
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<a href="http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="81" src="http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/files/2012/02/climate-change-banner.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i>Don Duggan-Haas</i><br />
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<br />Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-88794003397077918482012-05-23T21:18:00.000-07:002012-05-24T06:56:59.230-07:00Influence the Direction of Science Education: How to read and comment upon the Next Generation Science StandardsIn 1996, <i><a href="http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=4962" target="_blank">The National Science Education Standards</a> (NSES) </i>were published and in the intervening 16 years, they have provided guidance for K-12 science education. While <i>NSES</i> is <a href="http://www.nextgenscience.org/standards-background-research-and-reports" target="_blank">far from the only document to shape science standards</a> at the state level and science teaching across the country, it is almost certainly the most influential.<br />
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Sixteen years is a long time and <i>NSES</i> is showing its age. A new set of standards are now under development. <i><a href="http://www.nextgenscience.org/" target="_blank">The Next Generation Science Standards</a> </i>have a targeted release date of 2013.<br />
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A public draft is available for comment and this blog post is intended to give some guidance on how to provide that input. It's a complex document with complex implications about changes not only in K-12 science education, but also in the K-12 education system beyond the sciences. The time for feedback is short -- <b>the close of comments is June 1, but you can target your comments on specific components of the draft</b> <i>-- </i>so the task can be managed in this short amount of time.<br />
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I've played a minor role amongst a cast of at least hundreds (and probably over a thousand) in the development of <i>NGSS, </i>first as a member of the Earth & Space Science Design Team for <a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_2022319919"><i>A</i> </a><i><a href="http://www7.nationalacademies.org/bose/Standards_Framework_Homepage.html" target="_blank">Framework for K-12 Science Education</a> </i>and now as a member of the <a href="http://www.p12.nysed.gov/ciai/mst/sci/ngss.html" target="_blank">New York's Statewide Leadership Team</a>. As someone who has been involved in the development of <i>NGSS, </i>I find navigating the <i>NGSS</i> Draft confusing. I know from talking to others that I'm not alone in that feeling, and that's why I've put this post together.<br />
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The complexity is to be expected -- reformatting American K-12 science is no simple task, and the complexities of science literacy aren't something that can be understood in a glance, but we can help make those complexities accessible.<br />
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We'll look at a video on why new standards are needed, and then two on how to read the standards. The first two of these are from Achieve Inc., the organization that is coordinating the writing of the standards. The third is a short one from me, showing some more of the technological tools built into the <i>NGSS </i>to help further with your reading, and simply pointing you to pages that I found helpful as I was working on providing my own feedback.<br />
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In addition to the videos below, and the information at <a href="http://www.nextgenscience.org/">http://www.nextgenscience.org/</a>,<a href="http://www.nsta.org/about/standardsupdate/may2012draft.aspx" target="_blank"> the National Science Teachers' Association has put together some resources</a> to help you make sense of the <i>NGSS </i>Public Draft.<br />
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Before the videos, I'll highlight what I think are <i>some </i>(there are many) important changes that <i>NGSS </i>includes in its vision for K-12 science education:<br />
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<li>Performance Expectations define what understanding looks like for each standard in <i>NGSS, </i>in ways far richer than what can be captured on today's standardized tests and this may be a catalyst for the development and use of more authentic assessments of understanding.</li>
<li><i>NGSS </i>is structured with three dimensions, each of roughly equal importance: </li>
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<li>Science and Engineering Practices</li>
<li>Disciplinary Core Ideas</li>
<li>Crosscutting Concepts</li>
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<li><i>NGSS </i>addresses four disciplines:</li>
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<li>Life Science</li>
<li>Physical Science (including both physics and chemistry)</li>
<li>Earth and Space Science</li>
<li>Engineering and Technology</li>
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<li><i>NGSS </i>is designed with an understanding that it takes years of coordinated instruction to build deep understandings of the central big ideas of science, and weaves this understanding into the fabric of the standards.</li>
<li>While not always explicit throughout the document, a systems perspective is embedded in <i>NGSS's </i>design.</li>
<li>Considerable attention to both evolution and climate change is included within <i>NGSS</i>; much more than in <i>NSES. </i></li>
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These changes define a new vision for science education. The three dimensions address not only the content of scientific disciplines, but also describe how scientific knowledge. The inclusion of Engineering and Technology as Core Discipline is also a marked shift from current practice, and an appropriate shift. Attention to building understandings of a few keys ideas over many years is not typically done in schools today, nor is significant understandings of a systems perspective. And, attention to serious omissions of fundamental science that shapes our world is long overdue. </div>
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In short, these are important changes in positive directions and they are of substantial size.<br />
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On the <i>NGSS </i>website, you'll find a five page pdf with a delineation of what the authors regard as the important <a href="http://www.nextgenscience.org/sites/ngss/files/Conceptual%20Shifts%20in%20the%20Next%20Generation%20Science%20Standards%20FINAL%20PUBLIC%20May%20Draft.pdf">Conceptual Shifts in the NGSS</a>.</div>
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Now, let's go to the videos.</div>
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Why Are New Science Standards Needed?</h3>
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How to Read the Next Generation Science Standards</h3>
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I found the above two videos helpful, but they didn't give me quite enough information to find all the pieces I was looking for. I learned more through webinars I've attended over the last couple of weeks and I wanted to share this with others who didn't have the benefit of those webinars. So, I put together a short video to tour <a href="http://www.nextgenscience.org/">http://www.nextgenscience.org/</a>. Before you begin watching the video, you might open that link in another window, and pause the video as you explore the website.<br />
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More About How to Read the NGSS Draft</h3>
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The final video closes with a few comments about targeting your feedback where it will likely have the most effect. The text in the colored boxes is from <a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_2022319919"><i>A</i> </a><i><a href="http://www7.nationalacademies.org/bose/Standards_Framework_Homepage.html" target="_blank">Framework for K-12 Science Education</a> </i>which was published last year, and that text is unlikely to change. So, target your efforts elsewhere. Provide specific feedback on how to improve wording of Performance Expectations (those multi-colored sentences near the top of the box) or on the connections at the bottom of the box.<br />
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Direct your energies in providing feedback to the areas of the standards most relevant to your work and your experience. That both narrows your focus so that you can complete your task before the June 1 close of comments, and increases the likelihood that your comments are on target.<br />
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Also, if you think this document represents a vision you share for science education, include that in your comments. Be sure to say what you like about <i>NGSS! </i>Consider that individuals and groups of all sorts will be providing feedback on this work, and that your comments matter.<br />
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If there are strategies that you find helpful for navigating NGSS or for providing feedback, please share them in the comments below.</div>
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<i>Don Duggan-Haas</i>Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-26640336687367482512012-04-20T18:46:00.000-07:002017-10-10T08:51:09.968-07:00Where Does Gasoline Go?It's not unusual for an American to put about 10 gallons of gas into his or her car each week. At the end of the week, that gasoline is seemingly just gone, but we know from middle school science class that matter can neither be created nor destroyed, only changed in form.<br />
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This post illuminates the story of how gasoline changes in form and expands <a href="http://climatechange101.blogspot.com/2010/05/how-can-co2-released-weigh-more-than.html" target="_blank">an earlier telling of that story on this blog</a>.<br />
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Today's post is mostly in the form of the video below<i>, Where Does Gasoline Go? </i>I expect that most readers of this blog know the basic answer to that question: <i>Gasoline becomes carbon dioxide in the atmosphere</i>. That's right, of course, but it's not the whole story, and the video highlights more of the story of carbon as it is transforms from being part of the hydrocarbons that make up gasoline and become atmospheric carbon dioxide.<br />
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The combustion reaction that combines the gasoline with oxygen from the air also produces water vapor, and a bit of other stuff too. That's closer to the whole story, but the video is intended to give a deeper understanding of all that and more.<br />
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Check it out, either in the narrated version immediately below, or in the interactive downloadable version <a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/climatechange101/Gasoline-to-CO2-blog-version.mov" target="_blank">here</a>, where you control the video. I recommend the interactive version, where you can be your own narrator. The interactive version was also updated in 2017, using the most recent available data.<br />
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We're using a little more gasoline and a lot less coal than we were when the video was produced.<br />
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lwz0k4qFtg">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lwz0k4qFtg</a></div>
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In addition to showing how much carbon dioxide is produced by weight from burning a gallon of gasoline, the video also shows the volume of the carbon dioxide released -- in gallon-sized balloons. How many balloons do you think are needed to contain the carbon dioxide from burning one gallon of gas?<br />
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The video is largely an exposition of basic chemistry, and I think a powerful exposition that should give us pause. It closes with a simple idea that has proven very difficult to act upon. What is your response? What will you do?<br />
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Please share by commenting below.</div>
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<i>Don Duggan-Haas</i><br />
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<b>Production notes:</b></div>
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The video was originally created as an interactive video, meaning that it advanced when you clicked the play button to the next transition. Unfortunately, once embedded in the blog it didn't play that way, so I've add narration. You can download the video in an interactive format for Mac and PC <a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/climatechange101/Gasoline-to-CO2-blog-version.mov" target="_blank">here</a>. The downloadable .mov file plays a presentation in which you control transitions with the click of a mouse. Unfortunately, software updates (that are really down-dates) eliminate exporting to interactive movies, so that option applies to the 2012 video. A new version of the silent video is <a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/climatechange101/Gasoline-to-CO2-blog-version2017.m4v">here</a>, with automatic transitions. Note that this is a large (134.5 MB) .m4v file. The presentations were created using <a href="http://www.apple.com/iwork/keynote/" target="_blank">Keynote</a>, a presentation software only available for Mac OS. A Keynote version of the presentation is available <a href="http://virtualfieldwork.org/downloadabledocs/climatechange101/Gasoline-to-CO2-blog-version2017.key" target="_blank">here</a>. You can see a similar animation for methane (natural gas's primary component) <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQhYm4mBE9A&feature=relmfu" target="_blank">here</a>. </div>
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<br />Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4381908034194872461.post-91297840600558449362012-03-22T09:07:00.001-07:002012-03-22T09:08:28.517-07:00Today is World Water Day (and we need water for just about everything)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here's some good food for thought from the UN's World Water Day (if you'll pardon the pun):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In addition to the very important link between water and food emphasized above, I'll add that wasted water also means wasted energy. Typically a very large share of a municipality's energy use goes to pumping water. Stop and think about it. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">All of the water that comes to you (unless you live in an uncommon place where water comes from an <a href="http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/gwartesian.html" target="_blank">artesian well</a>) had to be pumped before reaching your faucet. For those of us on municipal water (in almost all cases), it's not being pumped to our homes, it's being fed by gravity from a water tower or water tank at higher elevation. Using gravity to deliver protects water supplies from fluctuations of use and from power outages. But, the water needs to get into those tanks and towers somehow, and that almost always involves a lot of pumping. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">We in the Northeast are lucky to have an abundance of potable water, but wasting it still has consequences even though it is a plentiful resource. So, swap in a low flow shower head, and if you haven't got a low flow toilet, replace that too (but do some research first, as some do <i>the job</i> much better than others). Think about your diet, including what you drink, too. (See the image below). Take shorter showers, and more importantly, figure out what your community can do to use less water and how you can help. Then help.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.fao.org/NR/water" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="280" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0CIVtE-xmoU/T2tM66jQKjI/AAAAAAAABJY/lHj4p3qRwWU/s400/Water-for-beverages.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i>Don Duggan-Haas</i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div>Paleontological Research Institutionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13059119727658619545noreply@blogger.com0